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Last season I tipped Forever Together to win the Oaks, I also tipped Masar to win the Derby. Both races were very different In a lot of ways but there is a connection between both winners if you dig a bit deeper into their breeding.

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Forever Together -is a 4yr old filly out of Galileo and Green Room. Now at first glance that doesn’t seem important but bear with me as I unravel each layer in detail. If we look at the next tier in bloodline we see Sadlers Wells and Urban Sea along with Theatrical and Chain Fern, now we are starting to see what I’m talking about but it’s the next 2 tier’s in bloodline that grabbed my attention. We have Northern Dancer in tier 3 and tier 4 meaning Forever Together is inbred 3 x 4 to Northern Dancer.

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Masar – is a 4yr old Colt out of New Approach and Khawlah, now as with Forever Together the first tier of Masar’s  bloodline doesn’t seem important. Tier two sees Galileo and Cape Cross on the male side with Park Express and Villarrica on the female side. Nothing special there but if we look at Tier 3 we see Sadlers Wells and Urban Sea along with Ahonoora who both appear in tier 3 and 4 making Masar inbred 3 x 4 to Urban Sea and Ahonoora while Northern Dancer also appears in tier 4.

When looking at the bloodline in more detail I have found that when there is more depth to a horses heritage there is more chance of it winning a classic like the Oaks or Derby.  Now I know some will disagree with my findings as that’s only two horse’s with a similar profile and that could be a fluke so I will prove this when applying same principle to finding a link with the winner of The Arc De Triomphe.

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If we look at Enable we see she is out of Nathaniel and Concentric but it’s tier 2 and tier’s 3 and 4 that show the link, Enable has Sadlers Wells and Urban Sea in tier 3 and this makes her inbred 2 x 3 to Sadlers Wells and 3 x 4 to Northern Dancer who appears in tier 3 and 4 retrospectively. This in my opinion shows without a shadow of doubt that having proven successful horses on more than one tier of bloodline is instrumental in finding the winners of Classics. Now this is all related in one way or another as these horses all run on the flat but is this transferable to jumps racing ???

I guess we will find out as I look at the Grand National as an example so let’s start with the winner of the last 2 Aintree Grand Nationals Tiger Roll

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– Tiger roll is out of Authorized and Swiss Roll, with MontJeu the only standout name in tier 2. Now it starts getting interesting with tier 3 throwing up Sadlers Wells twice and with Northern Dancer appearing twice in tier 4 making Tiger Roll inbred 3 x 3 to Sadlers Wells and 4 x 4 to Northern Dancer.

Northern Dancer appears in the family tree of 29 separate Classic winners, including the winner of every Derby since 1988. This in my mind confirms my theory that breeding Is definitely key in finding the winners of the highest profile races regardless if they are ran on the flat or over jumps.

I hope you have found this interesting and it has helped you look beyond the first tier of a horse’s bloodline, giving you more understanding of how much breeding plays a part in these races.

Written by Charlie Mcgreevy

 

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