Charlie & Myself have decide to look at 3 races for this years Breeders Cup – The Classic, The Mile & The Turf Sprint. You will get a little bit of history, before we look at the Stats & try & find a selection for each of the 3 races covered.
This year sees the Breeders Cup return to Santa Anita, after being held at Churchill Downs last year…
Breeders Cup Classic –
The Breeders Cup started back in 1984, in North America(USA) & The Classic, was an Inaugural race from it’s conception. This race is run over 1 & 1/4 miles(1200 metres) or 1m 4f in English money, a race for 3 year olds or above & ran on Dirt(Or AW)
Back in 1984, this was just a one day event & is now spread over TWO days, during the first weekend in November. The first running was at Hollywood Park & won by Wild Again, trained by V. Timphony & ridden by Pat Day, this was the first of Pat Day’s 4 wins in the Classic, winning again in 1990, 1998 & 1999. Last years winner Arrogate, was the 3rd win in 3 runs for trainer Bob Baffert, having won with Bayern (2014) & American Pharoah (2015), making him the top trainer with 3 wins.
In 2007, when the Win & Your in Series was introduced, but there are no European Win & Your in Races in the Classic, there are 7 races (All Grade 1) – Previous European winners include John Gosden in 2008, with Raven’s Pass & Andre Fabre in 1993, with Arcangues. Only One horse has won this race twice, which was Tiznow (2000 & 2001), while TWO jockey’s hold the record for 5 wins each are Jerry Bailey (1991, 93 .94, 95 & 2005) & Chris McCarron (1988, 89, 97, 2000 & 2001)
Breeders Cup Classic Stats
There have been no winning favourites since American Pharaoh who won in 2015.
Last European winner was Ravens Pass in 2008.
In the last 7 Years, 5 of the 7 winners have had their final prep race in New York.
3 horses aged 5 yrs old have won the Breeders Cup Classic.
1 female trainer has won this race in the last 10 years – Katherine Ritro.
Bob Baffert has won this race 3 times in the last 10 years.
9 of the last 10 winners have came from the first 5 in the betting with the odds being 9-1 or lower.
Previous winners have all won or placed in a Grade 1 race previously.
All winners had either won over 1m 1f or 1m 2f previously.
Of the stats above this leaves ……
Code of Honor – Grade 1 Saratoga Gold Cup & Grade 1 Travers Stakes winner (1m 2f)
Mongolian Groom – Grade 1 Awesome Again winner (1m 1f)
Mckinzie – Grade 1 Witney Stakes winner (1m 1f)
Higher Power – Grade 1 Pacific Classic winner (1m 2F)
Vino Rosso – Santa Anita Grade1 Gold Cup winner (1m 2f)
War of Will – Grade 1 Peakness winner ( 1m 1f 110yds)
Elate – Placed 2nd in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes at Saratoga on the 24th August. Placed 2nd in the Grade 1 Juddmonte Sinster Stakes at Keeneland on October 6th.
Rich – Code of Honor– Win
Charlie –Elate- Eachway
Breeders Cup Mile –
Like the Classic, has been in the Breeders Cup since 1984 but the main difference is that this race is run on Turf, over 1m or 1000m, again a race for 3 year olds & above. The Inaugural race was won by John Gosden, with Royal Heroine( one of 6 Filly/Mares) to win the race.
The 4 other Filly/Mares to win are – Miesque (1987 -88), Lure (1992 -93) & Goldikova (2008,09 & 2010) who holds the record for the most wins in the race for trainer Freddy Head, who also won the race twice as a Jockey on Miesque, which is quite some feat.
Like the Classic, in 2007, Win it & your In was introduced, with ONE UK race, the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood, included in the 9 races, this year won Too Darn Hot. The race is restricted to just 14 runners. Europe have had some success in this race, along with J. Gosden & F. Head, John Oxx, Luca Cumani & Vincent O’Brien have all won this race.
Breeders Cup Mile Stats
Two 3 year olds have won this race in the last 10 years – 2018 Expert Eye & Karaonite 2014.
Two 6 year olds have won this race in the last 10 years – Loperesti (2013) & Romans (2011)
Two horses have won this more than once in the last 11 years – Goldikova(2008/09/2010) & Loperesti(2012 & 2013)
Trainers Mark Casse & Freddy Head have won this race twice in the last 10 years.
Two Jockeys have won this race twice in the last 10 years – John R Valazquez & Olivier Peslier.
All previous winners had won over 1m or further.
All previous winners had won at least 4 times before.
Most previous winners have been aged 4 or higher.
Most previous winners had won a Grade 1 race before.
Favourites have won 6 of the last 13 renewals.
Most previous winners had raced in last 6 weeks.
From the stats above, we have narrowed down the field….
Uni – 5yo Mare. 9 career wins. Rated 119. Winner of the Fillies’/Mares’ Grade 1 First Lady Stakes at Keeneland on Oct 5th.
Bowies Hero – 5yo. Grade 1 winner in 2018. 6 career wins. Winner of the Grade 2 Eddie Read Stakes & Keeneland Turf Mile Grade 1 on Oct 5th. Rated 119.
Lord Glitters – 6yo. 5 career wins. Rated 106. Winner of the Queen Anne 1 mile Group 1 Stakes. Last run on Oct 19th.
The final two listed have 1 or 2 stats against them but fit 90%…
Circus Maximus – 3yo. 4 career wins. Rated 118. Winner of the St James’ Palace Stakes Group 1 &Prix Moulin Group 1. Both 1 mile races.
EL Tormenta – Rated 115. 3 career wins. Last run Sept 14th winning the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile Stakes.
Our Selections are……
Rich – Bowies Hero– Win
Charlie – Uni– Eachway
Breeders Cup – Turf Sprint
This was First run in 2008, to go along side the Sprint run on the Dirt(AW), it has been run over 5f to 6 & 1/2f & just like the other races, involves a series of Win & Your In races across the world, Two races in UK & Ireland are involved in this – the Nunthorpe, won this year by Battaash & Irelands Flying Five Stakes, won by Fairyland.
Sadly no European winners yet!
Breeders Cup Turf Sprint Stats
1 Trainer has won this twice since 2008 – Peter Miller.
2 Horses have won this race twice since 2008 – Stormy Liberal (2017 & 2018) & Mizdirection (2012 & 2013).
The oldest horse to win this race was 8 year old Obviously in 2016.
Joel Rossario & Mike Smith are the only 2 jockeys to have won this race twice.
Bobbys Kitten is the ONLY 3 year old to win this race in 2014.
All previous winners were aged between 3 and 5yrs old.
All previous winners had ran between 4 and 8 times that year.
Most previous winners had posted a rating above 110 last time out.
Most previous winners have finished in first 2 places in a Grade 1 or 2 last time out.
Most previous winners had finished in the first 2 places over 6f or 7f last time out.
After narrowing down the field using the above stats….
Stubbins…. Winner of the Grade 2 Keeneland 5 & 1/2f Woodford Stakes.. Rated 111
Leinster…. Troy Stakes Grade 3 Stakes winner… Runner up to Stubbins.. Rated 113
Totally Boss… Rated 110.. Won the Grade 3 6f Runhappy Stakes
And we can add reigning Champion Stormy Liberal to the mix….
Our Selections are –
Rich – Stubbins– Win
Charlie –Stormy Liberal– Eachway
We hope you find this useful in your search of a winner at the Breeders Cup. Please remember to use the stats yourself as the horse’s we mention are our personal choices and may differ from what you find by using them.
Good luck with your bets and enjoy the racing.
All the best
Charlie & Rich
All Images via Santa Anita RC Except BC Stalls(File)