The Flat is Back(Briefly)

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Today is the 1 mile Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster, it’s Dubai World Cup night in Meydan & the Irish Flat season kicks off this weekend at the Curragh – Plus there is National Hunt racing from Kelso & Stratford

The lads are back after a week off, although we have released a Podcast with our friend @AidanOBrienFanSite, in which we talk about some horses to follow from Ballydoyle & COMING SOON is a Galileo Podcast Special, on the legendary horse, who as a sire has changed the racing landscape.

Regarding our Cheltenham coverage, it’s safe to say that Charlie & Jamie walked all over Rich & Chris, so congrats to them for a brilliant 4 days!

Saturday –

Charlie –

Doncaster

2.25 SBK Spring Mile Handicap

Selection – General Lee – 4 year old Colt out of Lope De Vega and Hall Hee. Has had 9 career starts winning twice, the wins have came at Windsor on the 19th July last year when beating Future by 1 length. Won again at Goodwood on the 28th August beating Sky Power by 2 and 1/2 lengths. Although those wins came on Good to Firm Ground, has ran on Good to Soft and Heavy ground previously, finishing 3rd at Windsor on Heavy ground and Bath on Good to Soft Ground. Biggest threat to the selection comes in the shape of Empirestateofmind who hasn’t been out of the 1st 2 Places in last 5 runs of 2021.

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3.35 SBK Lincoln Handicap

Selection – Mujtaba – 4 year old Gelding out of Dubawi and Majmu, has had 3 career starts and has won all 3, beginning with a 4 and 1/2 length victory over Rani of Jhansi on the 23rd August last year at Chepstow. Was sent to Chester for next run on the 25th September and won again beating Ciotog by 1 and 1/4 lengths. Was then sent to Redcar on the 25th October and won again beating Empirestateofmind by 2 and 1/4 lengths. Today will see Mujtaba have his 3rd jockey change with Cieran Fallon taking over from Dane O’Neil who was on board for last two victories after Jim Crowley was on board for his debut win. Biggest danger to the selection comes in the shape of Saleymm who won last 2 starts of 2021.

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Chris –

Meydan

1.35pm Al Quoz Sprint Sponsored by Azizi Developments (Turf)

A competitive renewal with horses from all over the world lining up with realistic chances here. I’m siding with Suesa, who put up a stellar performance in the King George at Goodwood last summer before running well in top sprints at York and Longchamp. Her record first time out is a perfect 2/2 and seems versatile regarding pace and ground. Receiving 5lbs from her rivals today gives her leading claims of a maiden Group 1.

4.30pm Dubai World Cup Sponsored By Emirates Airline (Dirt)

The American raiders are here in force today and Hot Rod Charlie is my selection, who has been first past the post in 3 of his last 5 starts. He didn’t receive as positive a ride when only 4th in the Breeders Cup Classic, so it was pleasing to see those tactics return when an impressive winner of Round 2 of the Maktoum Challenge here last month. By all accounts trainer Doug O’Neill thought he’s improve a lot for the run so comes here with a huge chance if he can win the fight for the early speed, as he shouldn’t be wanting for stamina.

Jamie –

The Curragh –

1:25 – Castlefield Stud Irish EBF Maiden

Selection: Midnight Toker

The opening 2yo race of the Irish flat season has a familiar feeling to it with Ger Lyons and Jim Bolger fielding well regard contenders. I’m going to take the side of Midnight Token for the powerful Lyons & Keane combination. The son of Acclamation certainly has the pedigree for this 5f test being out of the mare Big Boned who has produced two winners over this trip. We all know that the Lyons stable can get one ready first time out as a 2yo and the market suggests that this €333,000 Guineas purchase from the Goffs Orby Sale is going to give his supporters a good run for their money. Jim Bolger’s Finsceal Go Deo is the main danger being by Kingman out of Champion mare Finsceal Beo.


Meydan –

3:55 – Dubai Sheema Classic (G1)

Selection: Alenquer (Each Way)

This looks to be a deep renewal of the 12f Sheema Classic with an open feel to it. Breeders Cup Turf winner Yibir faces a stiff task with multiple Japanese runners who command respect with their strong form at these big international meetings. At an each way price Alenquer makes appeal to me as this test should suit him down to a tee. Alenquer will relish the fast ground conditions today and with a good gallop seeming likely Tom Marquand can settle his mount just off the pace and gather for a charge down the Meydan straight. William Haggas sent Alenquer off for a prep run at Lingfield in the Winter Derby, where he saw off Lord North nicely staying on strongly over the 10f trip. This is a horse I like and I can’t see him being far away today if he can find more even more improvement. Step up in trip could be the key…

Rich –

Doncaster –
1.50 Cammidge Trophy Stakes – Class 1 Listed – 3yo+ – 6f 2yds
Mo Celita – Camacho X Asterism 4yo filly
Not seen since October 26th 2021 when finishing a 3 length 3rd in the Group 3 6f Chantilly Prix Seine et – Olse behind winner Egot. That was her 11th run since arriving from Ireland, her season in the UK started back in April 2021. The filly won her first 5 starts in this country, ranging from a Class 6 Seller to Class 4 Handicaps. She ran with credit in the Royal Ascot Class 2 Handicap, Palace of holyrodhouse Stakes. when only beaten a length in 5th. A rare poor run followed in the 6f Fillies’ & Mares’ Summer Stakes at York in July. The 4yo filly regained the winning thread in France, when landing the Deauville 6f Moonlight Cloud Listed Stakes by 3/4’s of a length in August. A 4th in the Prix Du Petit Couvert in September before finishing 4th in the Group 1 5f Prix l’Abbaye at Longchamp in October. She receives 5lb from the field & is 1 of only 2 4yo’s in the field. 5 wins & 1 place from 9 6f runs….

3.35 Lincoln Handicap – Class 2 – 4yo+ – 1m

I fully expect Mujtaba to land this race or certainly run in the first 3 but I am going for an Each Way play….
Rouge Bear – Kodiac X Rancho Montoyo 4yo gelding
The gelding has a win & place at this course in April & May last year & was given a break until September, when finishing 4th of 8 in an Ascot 7f Class 4 handicap before stepping up to 1 mile at Nottingham in October. The 4yo won back to back 1 mile Class 4 Handicaps at the course 3 weeks apart & hasn’t been seen since. Runs from a mark of 87 & carries just 8s 3Lbs on his back. Has plenty of scope for the season ahead & will be an improver to note. Hoping he takes a big step forward today – Each Way

Thanks for popping by & for taking the time to listen to our Podcasts, It means a lot to us.

All the Best – The Arseonlineracing Team

Cheltenham – The F Word

So another Cheltenham Festival has come and gone in the flicker of an eye, the wait and the many endless preview nights which seemed to last longer than the whole of the jumps season itself is now a distant memory with stories and performances that will live long in the memory bank and because of the Internet they can be easily replayed at any time on YouTube when you feel a bit bored watching Royal Ascot or a Kempton night meeting during the summer.

Throughout it though we had a question constantly being asked that had many answers from professionals, fans and punters alike.

Should the Festival go to five days?

Now this quite rightly caused much division, many people gave good reasons for and against while many just backed away and abstained, it is a huge talking point for sure.

In sport many fans and competitors dream about being on the big stage, during the cricket season you will see in September two teams living their actual dream when Lord’s hosts the National Village Cup Final at the Home Of Cricket, Football players at Non League level will grace Wembley when it’s the FA Trophy and FA Vase Finals Day and away from sport you will get drama students having ambitions of treading the boards in London’s West End, for many it will happen and for others it will remain a dream that could still happen.

Now the reason I mention this is that during the Festival some of the races did have small fields, notably the Turner’s Novices’ Chase and the National Hunt Chase and with that you would have to wonder how a fifth day would work when field sizes for four days weren’t quite in double figures for some of the races.

All owners of horses want to experience and have a runner at the big flat and jump festivals, it’s the dream every owner has and i think i have the best solution to solve the F word!

My local course Haydock hosts the Challenger Series Finals at it’s Easter Saturday meeting, now this series is designed to offer horses rated under 140 a chance to have a big payday as they would usually struggle to make the cut for the big Festival handicap races and it also gives a bit of structure to the middle of road horses during the season.

While the finale of the whole series produces some good and competitive racing at Haydock it does seem to lack a bit of bite though, the course doesn’t have any signs or insignia around the place advertising the series and there is no fanfare when the winning horses return to the winners enclosure, it’s a typical appreciative applause from a good crowd but still it doesn’t quite have that feeling you would get at a major festival.

Personally if Cheltenham wants a fifth day then rather than create new races i would just move the Challenger Finals to the home of jump racing and that way the owners and trainers at the mid to lower end can have a chance of lifting a trophy up in the same way that the captain of the local village cricket team wants to walk out to bat through the Long Room at Lord’s or the same way that the egotistical lead actor of the local am-dram society wants to take the applause at the Barbican.

Five days is more than likely to occur so instead of thinking up new races why not just move what you already have in place, surely this makes more sense then continuing to over egg the festival pudding?

Article – Neil Watson ( @WattyRacing)

An Arseonlineracing Publication – March 2022

Gold Cup Day – Cheltenham Finale

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So after 6 weeks build up, the many, many previews & the constant road to Cheltenham blogs & ante post betting sites, it all came down to 4 days of National Hunt racing & we have reached the finale!

Day 4 has 3 Grade 1 races, including the Gold Cup, with a Grade 2 Mares’ chase & Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle.
It has been a pleasure to present the 4 days for you & we hope you have enjoyed our coverage.

The scores on the doors are – UK 10 – 11 Ireland – IT’S CLOSE!

As for the AOLR Team…
Charlie – Thyme Hill (2nd) Imperial Alcazar (2nd) 1 Winner & 3 places
Chris – 2 places
Jamie – Flooring Porter (Winner) Stolen Silver (Unplaced) 2 winners
Rich – Alaphillipe (2nd) Admiral (Unplaced) 2 places

Let’s get Gold Cup day started……

Charlie –

1.30 Jcb Triumph Hurdle

Selection – Fil Dor – Has 3 hurdle wins in Ireland and was beaten into 2nd place at Leopardstown on the 5th February by the Mullins trained Vauban. Although was beaten 3 lengths that day he should have won, but made mistake at the last and gifted the race to Vauban. With a clearer round could reverse that form in this race but will need to be slicker with his jumping and put pressure on the Mullins horse on the run in.

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3.30 Gold Cup

Selection – Protektorat – Has had 5 runs this season and hasn’t been out of the 1st two places, was stepped up in distance for latest run at Aintree and although pulled a bit hard in that race, still managed to give Native River a 25 length defeat. If settling better and producing a similar round of jumping that should be enough to be in the mix here and at around 11-1 is an eachway play.

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Chris –

2.50 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

A race that has often produced a big priced winner over recent years with 7 of the past 8 renewals being won at a double-figured price. With that in mind I’m opting for Good Time Jonny, who has made stark progress over the winter having been rated just 108 at the end of last summer. His win at the DRF over this trip last time out was very impressive, and i like a battle hardened stayer in this race. He makes plenty of each-way appeal with the extra places on offer.

3.30pm Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup

Galvin has been my fancy for this since his career best in the Savills Chase over Christmas, where he run down A Plus Tard in the closing stages. Having won the National Hunt Chase last year he ticks plenty of boxes on the trends and should be full of running when others have cried enough.

I found an interesting stat that placed horses in the Supreme are 6/6 in the blue riband event, this includes the likes of Best Mate and War Of Attrition. So with that said I’d recommend an each-way on Chantry House, who bounced back with a battling performance in the Cotswold Chase in January and can make the frame today.

4.10pm St James’s Palace Hunters Chase

Premier Magic is one of my each-way selections of the week. The 8yo, trained by Bradley Gibbs produced a solid effort over Christmas at my local P2P course Chaddesley to beat last years winner, Porlock Bay. He followed up with a smooth win last time and may just have slipped under the radar compared to those well known hunter chasers. He’s won his last 5 points over at least 3 miles and ticks plenty of boxes today.

5.30pm Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle

Recent trends favour lightly raced horses near the top of the weights who have shown promising form in graded events earlier in the season. So we go with Hollow Games in the Festival finale. Gordon Elliott has a very strong recent record of horses finishing in the frame and won 2 recent renewals. Hollow Games has run with credit over this trip in Grade 1’s the past twice and could still have room to manoeuvre off his mark of 143.

Jamie –

1:30 – JCB Triumph Hurdle (G1) – Selection: Pied Piper  

This looks an exceptional Triumph Hurdle on paper and I am happy to focus on the big three of Vauban, Pied Piper & Fil Dor. Having won at Cheltenham on trails very easily I am going to take the corner of Pied Piper who is one of my best bets of the week. The son of New Approach hasn’t put a foot wrong so far over hurdles for Gordon Elliott having won both starts. First time out he edged out Vauban at Punchestown on heavy ground, it was a fine effort as Vauban was hotly fancied that day. Then he was sent over to Cheltenham for the trial race to gain some experience of traveling and the track which will be helpful this afternoon. The opposition wasn’t anywhere near what he’ll be facing today but Pied Piper couldn’t have won easier, virtually on the bridle by nine lengths. There are no excuses today, the ground is fine and a good gallop will suit my selection. Undoubtedly Vauban and Fil Dor are the main dangers and I believe Fil Dor will enjoy more of a stamina test than he faced at Leopardstown. I did also note that Porticello is a solid looking each way play on our podcast. What a fascinating opener to Gold Cup Day. 

5:30 – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle –  

Selection: Langer Dan  

The lucky last? Hopefully in my case it will be. The talking horse in regards to this race is last year’s runner up Langer Dan who races today off just 2lbs higher than twelve months ago when just two lengths behind Galopin Des Champs, not bad form, eh? The Dan Skelton team have once again laid the likeable 6yo out for this race as he has only raced once since the festival last year, that came at Taunton last month where evidently Langer Dan needed the run but still wasn’t beaten too far. If he’s in the same form as last year he holds big claims and shouldn’t be too far away on all known form. The competitive and furious nature of these big field handicaps brings out the best in Langer Dan who has been placed in the Boodles and in this race at his two previous festival races. The vibes are strong and Lorcan Williams is a top conditional jockey to have on your side to further boost his chances.  

Rich –

1.30 JCB Triumph Hurdle – Grade 1 – 4yo Only – 2m 179yds
Vauban – Galiway X Waldfest 4yo gelding.
Made debut at Punchestown on December 31st 2021 in a 1m 7f 120yd maiden hurdle, finishing a 1/2 length runner up to Pied Piper on heavy ground. Made no mistake next time out when beating Fil Dor confortably by 3 lengths on February 5th in a Leopardstown 2m Grade 1 spring juvenile hurdle – WIN
ONE TO WATCH –
Knight Salute – Sir Percy X Shadow Dancing 4yo gelding.
Has won 3 Grade 2 hurdles this term, including the trial for this race back in November, he beat Porticello at Doncaster in December & at Kempton, when last seen on February 26th in the 2m Adonis Juvenile Hurdle by 3 & 1/4 lengths from Teddy Blue.

2.50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 1 – 4yo+ – 2m 8f…
Minella Cocooner – Flemensfirth X Askanna 6yo gelding.
Runner up in a Cork 2m maiden hurdle back in November by 2 & 3/4 lengths before landing a Navan maiden hurdle, when stepping up in trip to 2m 4f on December 18th by 6 & 1/2 lengths.
Stepped up in trip again at Leopardstown on February 5th when also heading in to Grade 1 company over 2m 6f, where he beat Minella Crooner by 2 & 3/4 lengths. Up in trip again. Each Way

And my final selection of the 4 days….
4.50 – Mares’ Chase – Grade 2 – 5yo+ – 2m 4f 127yds
Concetista – Nathaniel X ZagZig 8yo Mare.
This is her 4th Cheltenham festival appearance!
She made her race course debut at the festival in March 2019 in the 2m 179yd Mares’ Novice Hurdle, when beaten by a short head, it took another 4 runs for her to win & that was at the 2020 festival, when landing the Mares’ Novice Hurdle by 12 lengths. Her last festival appearance was when she was narrowly beaten in the final strides by Black Tears in the Grade 1 Mares’ Hurdle.
She has been chasing this season, having had 2 runs in this sphere to date. She made her chase debut at Cork on December 5th in a 2m 160yd Grade 2 Novice Chase, winning by 1/2 a length & made it a pair of Novice Chase Grade 2 wins at Limerick, when landing the 2m 6f 120yds Dawn Run by 4 lengths on December 28th. Runs from joint Top weight, carrying 11s 5lbs. I’m going for experience!

And that concludes our coverage of the 2022 Cheltenham Festival. A big thanks to the chap’s for their hard work this week & to you for popping by, we really appreciate it… Take Care.

All the Best – The Arseonlineracing Team

Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup 2022 Preview

Well ladies and gentlemen, this is the one we’ve all been waiting for. The blue riband prize in Jumps racing, the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Here I will take a look at every runner in alphabetical order and give my opinion on their chances. So, let’s dive in and discover the 11 horses who will be battling for the prestigious prize.  

The Holy Grail

A Plus Tard –  

Trainer: Henry De Bromhead  

Jockey: Rachael Blackmore  

Form: 212-12  

Last year’s runner up A Plus Tard aims to go one better in 2022 and capture the blue riband prize of the festival. So far it has been solid campaign for A Plus Tard with a terrific display when winning the Betfair at Haydock followed by a short head second to Galvin in the Savills at Leopardstown.
He holds big claims but I still suspect there are stronger stayers at this trip with the hill to climb.  

Al Boum Photo –  

Trainer: Willie Mullins 

Jockey: Paul Townend  

Form: /13-21  

Dual Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo is almost the forgotten horse in this year’s Gold Cup. We don’t get to see a lot of Al Boum Photo with only 7 starts since his 2018 Gold Cup success. He warmed up with his usual trip to Tramore on New Year’s Day where he beat Burrows Saint by 4 lengths, it wasn’t much a race but he did what he needed to do.
Reports from Closutton suggest he hasn’t been sparkling in his work and I struggle to see him winning this hot renewal.  

Asterion Forlonge –  

Trainer: WIllie Mullins 

Jockey: Bryan Cooper 

Form: 3-1UF4  

There is no doubting that Asterion Forlonge is a horse blessed with a healthy amount of ability but he is nearly as unpredictable and quirky as they come. The grey son of Coastal Path always seems to find a fence to make a blunder at as we’ve seen this season in the John Durkan & King George, he had a serious chance of winning both before making those mistakes.
If he can iron out his jumping then he will run a nice race but I would have doubts over his stamina. Best watched.  

Aye Right –  

Trainer: Harriet Graham & Gary Rutherford  

Jockey: Callum Bewley  

Form: 30-513 

One of the big outsiders and representing the north is Aye Right. This plucky 9yo will definitely stay the trip well but does he have the class to be close enough rounding the home bend?
I think this is a bridge too far, especially with good ground seeming likely.  

Chantry House –  

Trainer: Nicky Henderson  

Jockey: Nico De Boinville 

Form: 11-1P1  

Nicky Henderson’s Chantry House bounced back from a poor performance in the King George to win the Cotswolds Chase over C+D last time out. Chantry House certainly boasts strong course form, winning 3 of his 4 races at Cheltenham including last year’s Turners (Old Marsh Chase).
I can see this horse running a big one and I think he has excellent each way potential in this race.  

Galvin –  

Trainer: Gordon Elliott 

Jockey: Davy Russell  

Form: 11-121  

The horse that many punters think is the ideal horse for this stamina sapping test. Galvin boasts good course form as a winner of two races at Prestbury Park in the past including last year’s National Hunt Chase. Gordon Elliott’s charge has improved again this season and beat current favourite A Plus Tard fair and square at Leopardstown.
He will love the hill and very few will be staying on more powerfully than Galvin, he’s my pick for the race.  

Minella Indo –  

Trainer: Henry De Bromhead 

Jockey: Robbie Power 

Form: 41-3P2 

Last year’s winner Minella Indo faces a stiff task and history as he looks to achieve the rare feat of winning back-to-back Gold Cups. It is a similar story to last year as he hasn’t enjoyed a great season so far but an encouraging second in the Irish Gold Cup should leave him spot on for this.
He loves Cheltenham and seems to be a better horse here. The ground is perfect for him too. Big chance.

Protektorat –  

Trainer: Dan Skelton  

Jockey: Harry Skelton  

Form: 221-21  

The dark horse of the race for many and the shortest priced runner for the home team. Protektorat has improved a lot over the past 12 months winning a Grade 1 at Aintree last year and then bolting up in the Many Clouds Chase in December, beating Native River by 25 lengths. It wasn’t the strongest race and he will need to find another 8 or 10lbs of improvement to win the Gold Cup but we still don’t know how good he could be.
He also boasts very solid course and distance form (2 wins and 2 places from 7 runs). Solid chance of hitting the frame.  

Royale Pagaille –  

Trainer: Venetia Williams 

Jockey: Charlie Deutsch 

Form: 16-212 

Rich Ricci’s hopes of landing a first Gold Cup rest with Royale Pagaille once again. The tough 8yo was sixth in this contest last year and may well need to find some improvement if he is to better that result, in my opinion. He was no match for A Plus Tard in the Betfair at his beloved Haydock before grinding out another win in the Peter Marsh at the same course.
Last time he found Eldorado Allen too strong in the Denman at Newbury. I just don’t think he’s good enough.  

Santini –  

Trainer: Polly Gundry 

Jockey: Nick Schofield  

Form: 53P-42  

An old stalwart of these big staying chases, Santini runs in the Gold Cup for a third time. The popular 10yo has moved stables to Polly Gundry’s yard and ran a stormer on his debut for his new trainer when running Chantry House to just over two lengths at Cheltenham on trials day. We all know that stamina is Santini’s main strength and the recent rainfall will aid his chances. If things turn into a real slog Santini could sneak into a place at best if he can stay in touch after the third last.  

Tornado Flyer –  

Trainer: Willie Mullins 

Jockey: Danny Mullins  

Form: 543-51 

It is not often the reigning King George winner goes off at double figure odds in a Gold Cup but that could be the case with Tornado Flyer. He stayed on strongly to win at Kempton which is of course, a much tighter and less stamina demanding course but he did in good style. I tipped this horse as a good each way selection in the race as he is still improving and may well improve for the step up in trip. Good-ish ground will suit nicely too.
I like the angle of coming into this race fresh and I think Tornado Flyer could brew up a storm.  

Written by Jamie Lindsay for Arseonlineracing.

Published – March 2022

Day 3 of the Cheltenham Festival

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The first 2 days have been cracking racing ( Although the watering of the course is a Bain of the day) with Sir Gerhard, Facile Vega & Energumene winning on day 2. Another 3 Grade 1 contests today, a pair of Grade 3’s & the Grade 2 Mares’ Novice Hurdle.
The scores at the midway point of the festival are – UK 5 – 9 Ireland

As for the AOLR scores –
Charlie – Journey With Me (Fell) & Unexpected Party (PU) 1 win/1 place
Chris – Diesel D’Allier (4th) & Buddy Rich ( Non Runner) 2 places
Jamie – Bravemansgame (Non Runner) & Facile Vega ( Winner) 1 winner 0 places
Rich – Gowel Road ( 7th) 1 place

That’s everything up to date, let’s get on with Day 3….

Charlie –

3.30 Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle

Selection – Thyme Hill – 8 year old Gelding out of Kayf Tara and Rosita Bay, has had 12 career runs winning 6 times, last win came at Aintree on the 10th April last year when beating Roksana by a neck. More recently was beaten 1 and 3/4 lengths by Champ in the Long Walk hurdle on the 18th December and Paisley Park was 3rd in that race some 5 lengths behind the winner. If reproducing that kind of form today that should be enough to land this race at the expense of Champ who has since been beaten since that Long Walk Hurdle win.

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4.10 Craft Irish Whiskey Co. Plate Handicap Chase

Selection – Imperial Alcazar -Won here last time out when beating Beakstown by 10 lengths, although that was first win in almost a year, has ran with credit in a couple of races. Although was 2nd twice on first 2 Chase starts the 1st of those was a 2 horse race so that can’t be gauged as a piece of form, but has built on that experience and looks likely that if reproducing form shown in previous 3 starts that could be enough to land this race, biggest danger to the selection comes in the shape of Adrimel who has won last 2 starts.

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Jamie –

3:30 – Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle (G1)  

Selection: Flooring Porter  

This looks to be perhaps the most open Grade 1 race of the entire festival with the field at 4/1 at the time of writing. I think the defending champion Flooring Porter can do the business once again. He ticks a lot of boxes with his course and distance form proven, winning on soft ground and reports from the Gavin Cromwell team have been positive. As many will have noted down yesterday’s rainfall will have aided his chances. Gavin has freshened up Flooring Porter as we haven’t seen him in public since Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting where he just failed to reel in one of his biggest dangers today, Klassical Dream. However, anybody who has seen that race knows that Klassical Dream stole a good five or six crucial lengths in a messy start to the race. Flooring Porter was gaining all the way up the Leopardstown straight and I am confident he will turn the form around. Everything is set for a big effort from my selection and he should be in the mix.  

4:10 – Craft Irish Whiskey Co. Plate Handicap Chase (G3) 

Selection: Stolen Silver (Each way)  

This race has slightly cut up with 4 pulled out to the soft ground conditions, which leaves a field of 18 going to post for the 2m 4 1/2f test. At an each way price I like Stolen Silver who goes for the Sam Thomas yard who have been in good form this campaign. This horse has some smart form in the book from his novice hurdling days when he beat Edwardstone & ran Chantry House close at Cheltenham over two miles. The pick of his form this season over fences was a neck second behind Editeur De Gite here at Prestbury Park back in November, a stumble after the last may have cost him victory that day. I am happy to forgive a horse a poor run and for whatever reason he just didn’t fire at Wincanton last time out. It is also worth noting that he has ran in a G1 behind Edwardstone earlier this campaign too, that is the regard this horse is held in by his team. The course suits him well, he has winning form on soft ground and is on the improve this season. Hopefully they will go a good clip up and my horse can pick them off late and pick up a place. Shop around as some bookies will be offering extra places.  

Rich –

2.10 Handicap Hurdle – Grade 3 – 5yo+ – 2m 8f
Alaphilippe – Morozov X Oscar Bird 8yo gelding.
3 wins & 1 place from 6 hurdle starts, with all his hurdle wins coming on soft ground (Won a NHF race on Heavy at Ffos Las) Ran in last years Albert Bartlett, finishing 8th of 16 behind Vanillier. Won a Grade 2 Haydock novice hurdle last February. Has only had 1 run this term at Warwick in a 3m 1f Class 2 handicap hurdle, finishing 5th of 7, some 8 & 1/2 lengths behind winner Sporting John on January 15th. Handicap mark has dropped from 143 this time last year to 138 – Each Way

4.10 Plate Handicap Chase – Grade 3 – 5yo+ – 2m 4f 127yds…
Adrimel – Tirwanako X Irise De Gene 7yo gelding.
2 wins from his 3 chase starts. Was pulled up between 5th & 4th last o Chase debut at Exeter after never getting going in a Class 2 Novice chase over 2m 3f on December 3rd. Ran again just 15 days laster ( December 18th) at Haydock (Soft, Heavy in places) in a Class 3 Novice Chase, with a field of 4 going to post. He duly won the race by 15 lengths. A break of 63 days before he returned to Haydock (Heavy) in another small field on February 19th, when beating Shman Du Berlais by a neck to make it 2 wins from 3 runs! Each Way

That’s the end of day 3 from us at AOLR, thanks for popping by, we really appreciate it. See you tomorrow for the final day of the Cheltenham Festival 2022…

All the Best – The Arseonlineracing Team

Queen Mother Champion Chase Day – Day 2 Cheltenham

Welcome to Arseonlineracing – The 100% Independent racing website & podcast with NO affiliate links….

What an opening day we had yesterday with fine wins for Constitution Hill (WOW), Honeysuckle & Edwardstone, with the scores standing at the end of day 1 – UK 4 – 3 Ireland…
Another 4 Grade 1 races today, with the day ending with the Grade 1 Champion Bumper (NH Flat Race) & the highlight, could well be the Grade 1 Queen Mother Champion Chase where we could see the re-match between Shishkin & Energumene…

As for us here at AOLR HQ….
Charlie – 1 winner ( Constitution Hill ) & 1 place ( Blue Lord )
Chris – 2 places ( Blue Lord & Run Wild Fred )
Jamie – No score
Rich – 1 place ( Tea Clipper )

Time for Day 2 thoughts….

Charlie – 1.30 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

Selection – Journey With Me – 6 year old Gelding out of Mahler and Kilbarry Demon, has ran 4 times and is yet to taste defeat, Won his point to point by 12 lengths on the 29th November 2020. Was then sent to Henry De Bromhead and made debut at Gowran Park a winning one on the 12th March last year, when beating Gauldon by 13 lengths. Was sent to Leopardstown on the 29th December and beat Minella Crooner by 3 and 1/2 lengths. Won again on most recent start at Naas when beating Choice Of Words by 3 lengths on the 12th February. If showing same attitude should be in the mix, come the business end of the race with biggest threat coming from Sir Gerhard who has won his last 2 outings.

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2.50 Coral Cup

Selection – Unexpected Party– 7 year old Gelding out of Martaline and Reform Act, has had just 6 career starts and has only finished outside the 1st 3 places once. Finished 2nd here on the 13th November last year when beaten 2 and 1/2 lengths by Gowel Road who he faces again today, was 2nd again on next start at Wetherby on the 26th December when beaten 1 length by The Brimming Water. Won at Ascot on latest start when beating Fils D’oudairies by 4 and 1/2 lengths. If showing same attitude as last 4 starts should be in the mix here with biggest threat coming in the shape of Gowel Road and Saint Felicien.

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Chris –

4.10 Glenfarclas Chase

Several key players stand their ground and all eyes will be on Tiger Roll and his Cheltenham swansong. However several at the head of the betting have questions to answer so I’m putting up Diesel D’Allier. He has run twice over the course this season, finishing 3rd and 1st in the cross-country handicaps. He was also 4th in this race 2 years ago when trained by Emmanuel Clayeux. With that experience behind him, It would be no shock should he be involved at the finish here, with several firms paying extra places, he’s my each-way pick.

4.50pm Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase

Popular in the ante-post markets, Buddy Rich arrives here off a very handy looking mark of 138. Not seen since November at a Fairyhouse handicap, Buddy Rich also finished an 8-length 2nd to Third Time Lucky at the October meeting, who is now rated 159. Good to soft ground seems ideal, and he should get that as long as the rain isn’t too persistant on Wednesday. Novices and second-season chasers have an excellent record in this race, while he’s also in the right weight range following recent trends. He should go well here for Gordon Elliott, who also saddled the favourite to win this race in 2020.

Jamie –

2:10 – Brown Advisory Novices Chase (G1)
Selection: Bravemansgame

Bravemansgame arrives at his second Cheltenham Festival hoping to make it second time lucky. He faces stiff opposition from the likes of L’Homme Presse & Ahoy Senior but Paul Nichols’ charge has the right sort of profile to win this race. So far it has been a successful first season over fences for Bravemansgame who is seeking to make it 5/5 this afternoon. The highlight of his season so far was a boxing day victory in the Grade 1 Kauto Star at Kempton where he comfortably saw of L’Homme Presse, although I’m not entirely sure if the tighter track suited Venetia Williams’s horse. Things went to plan on his prep run at Newbury where he once again jumped beautifully, which will stand him in good heart here. He’s rock solid and reports from his homework have been glowing with praise. He has rock solid credentials in this Grade 1.

5:30 – Weatherby’s Champion Bumper (G1)
Selection: Facile Vega

This year’s Champion Bumper sees potentially one of the big head to head battles of the festival. It is hard to split American Mike and Facile Vega but on the basis of his devastating Grade 2 win at Leopardstown’s Dublin Racing Festival Facile Vega gets my vote. I did mention on one of our podcasts that he was my nap of the meeting and I’m not changing my mind now. When Ted Walsh says that Facile Vega is “the best bumper horse I’ve ever seen” you have to sit up and take notice. In that Leopardstown bumper I mentioned earlier Facile Vega won hard on the bridle by 12 lengths with Patrick Mullins motionless in the saddle, it was deeply impressive. Of course this is an entirely different test and American Mike will be a tough nut to crack but I am confident that Facile Vega has all the ingredients to make it another success in the Wednesday finale for Willie Mullins.

Rich –

2.50 Handicap Hurdle – Grade 3 – 4yo+ – 2m 5f….
Gowel Road – Flemensfirth X Hooygrove Samba 6yo gelding
Only had 9 career starts, all over hurdles. He has won 3 times including over C&D & ran in last years County hurdle, finishing 20/25 to Belfast Banter. His win this year was over C&D at the November meeting in a Class 2 handicap hurdle by 2 & 1/2 lengths from Unexpected Party.
His last run was at Lingfield (Very Heavy ground) in a 2m Class 2 handicap hurdle, finishing 2nd by 1 & 1/4 lengths from Metier – EACH WAY

That is all for Day 2… Thanks for popping by & we look forward to seeing you for Day 3!

All the Best – The Arseonlineracing Team

Here’s Cheltenham – Day 1

Hello & Welcome to Arseonlineracing – The 100% Independent racing website & Podcast with NO affiliate links….

Soon to be a hive of activity at Cheltenham

After all the build up, the full 6 week treatment from all the pundits & racing Television folk it has finally arrived! The Cheltenham Festival, the greatest 4 days of National Hunt racing at Prestbury Park…
With 4 Grade 1 races, a pair of Grade 3 contests with a Grade 2 Chase thrown in to the mix for good measure, Day 1 looks like it has the making of a stunning days racing for the crowd to enjoy & we cannot wait for the famous Cheltenham Roar when the Starter drops his flag at around 1.30pm to signal the start of the Grade 1 Supreme Novice Hurdle.

We will be blogging on ALL 4 days, with ALL 4 of us on duty, despite Chris being at Prestbury Park for the first 2 days, no doubt enjoying the hospitality!
So lets kick this racing extravaganza off….

Charlie – 1.30 Supreme Novices Hurdle

Selection – Constitution Hill -Has had 3 starts so far beginning with a head 2nd to Anyharminasking at Tipperary on the 24th April last year. Was then sent to Nicky Henderson and made debut at Sandown on the 4th December and won, beating Might I by 14 lengths. Was sent back to Sandown on the 8th January and won again, beating Jetoile by 12 lengths. Although Nicky Henderson has Johnbon in this race and Willie Mullins has Dysart Dynamo, my preference is for Constitution Hill as the manner in which he won those 2 races at Sandown caught my eye and although is relatively inexperienced in comparison to Johnbon and Dysart Dynamo, he has less miles on the clock and that may help his chances against the 2 main rivals.

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2.10 Sporting Life Arkle Novices Chase

Selection – Blue Lord – Winner of last 3 races including beating Riviere D’etel last time out at Leopardstown by 1/2 length. I mentioned both Blue Lord and Constitution Hill on the podcast as they are both out of the same sire Blue Bresil and are my Nap and Next best bet of the meeting.

Chris –

2.10pm Sporting Life Arkle Novices Chase

A rather wide-open looking Arkle this year, with no clear and obvious odds-on chance like some renewals. Blue Lord is my pick here, he boasts a 100% record over fences and his jumping won him the Irish Arkle at the DRF last time out. He was also one of the best over timber of all his rivals today and would have been placed at last years Festival, but for a heavy fall. I’m hoping Blue Lord can add to Willie Mullins record of 4 winners from the past 7 running’s of the race.

5.30pm Ukraine Appeal National Hunt Challenge Cup

Not an original choice here, but Run Wild Fred has long been on my shortlist for the closing race on Day 1. A second-season novice, Run Wild Fred has put in some excellent effort in defeat, including over this roughly this trip in this Irish Grand National last season. Runner-up again last time out at the highest level means he arrives here as top rated on official ratings. He meets plenty of trends today including Gordon Elliott and Jamie Codd boasting several recent wins in this race.

The calm before the roar!

Jamie –

2:10 – Sporting Life Arkle Challenge Trophy (G1) 

Selection: Riverie D’Etel (Nap) 

The ultimate test for the two-mile novice chasers as a field of 11 battle for Arkle glory. Five of the last seven renewals have gone to Ireland and I believe Riverie D’Etel has the toolkit to deliver the goods for the Elliott stable. The 5yo mare has been a bit of a revelation this season over fences with three wins from five races. Her two defeats this season have come against Ferny Hollow and Blue Lord, that is top class form. Last time out at Leopardstown a bad blunder at the last fence cost her victory in the Irish Arkle where she just failed narrowly to get back up to beat Blue Lord. I am confident she can turn that form around. Good to soft ground is ideal for Riverie D’Etel and in receipt of 7lbs with the mares allowance she certainly ticks a lot of boxes. She would relish a battle up the hill. My nap of the day. 

4:50 – Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (G3) 

Selection: Too Friendly (Each way) 

There are not many more tricky puzzles to solve this week as a full field of 22 four-year-olds go to post for the old Fred Winter. At a big price (22/1 at the time of writing) Too Friendly has some smart form from a seven length fourth in a Doncaster Grade 2. The winner of that race was the unbeaten Knight Salute while Grade 1 winner Porticello was second. You can perhaps see why I give Dan Skelton’s charge a squeak today. Too Friendly hasn’t raced since that December day up at Doncaster and has had a wind operation in-between this and Cheltenham, hopefully that has sorted his wind out. This horse likes to be held up and come with a late charge, so a good gallop which they usually go in this race would be ideal. He will need some luck of course but I think off 10st 11lbs Too Friendly is well handicapped and will be primed for this. Shop around as some bookies are offering up to seven places.  

Rich –

2.50 Ultima Handicap Chase – Grade 3 – 5yo+ – 3m 1f…
Tea Clipper – Stowaway X A Plus Ma Puce 7yo gelding.
A novice chaser, who landed a 2m 3f Chepstow Listed Chase on seasonal return on October 9th 2021, beating Fidelio Vallis by 3 lengths. He travelled to Newbury on November 26th, when running in a 2m 4f Grade 2 Novice Chase, finishing 2nd of 4 runners, 30 lengths behind winner, Nassalam before his final start of 2021, which was in the 3m Kauto Star Chase at Kempton on Boxing day. He finished a tailed off 4th of 4 runners, some 42 lengths behind winner, Bravemansgame. The winner, runner up ( Ahoy Senor) & 3rd (Kiltealy Briggs) have all won since. He has not been on the race course since that day & has a wind operation. He steps up in trip again, with his handicap mark being eased from 147 to 145. He has festival experience, having finished 3rd in last years Coral Cup. Wears 1st time Cheek Pieces & carries 10s 7lb. Trainer ( Tom Lacy ) has a 40% Strike rate ( 6/15) last 14 days with Jockey ( Stan Sheppard ) also having a 42% SR ( 8/19 ) in the last 14 days….. ( My NH AOLR Horse to follow 2021/22)
DO NOT DISMISS last years WINNER –
Vintage Clouds – Cloudings X Rare Vinatge 12yo gelding.
His form in this race is brilliant, he has ran 5 times, placing twice before winning last season. He carried 10s 11Lbs to victory by 5 & 1/2 lengths. Like last year, he has had a wind operation & this is he 2nd run after, he was runner up on his last start. He retains his Cheek Pieces, carries 10s 6Lbs this year & although he won from a mark of 143, has won 3 times from same mark, today he runs from 144 – Extra Places!

4.10 Mares’ Hurdle – Grade 1 – 4yo Plus – 2m 4f…
Martello Sky – Martaline X Kentucky Sky 6yo Mare.
6 wins from 8 career hurdle runs, including 2 from 2 over C&D, although she was soundly beaten by Favourite, Telmesomethinggirl in the Dawn Run last year by 14 & 1/2 lengths. I believe she has improved a lot since that day & is 3 wins from 4 starts this season & deserves her chance today.
A C&D win at the December meeting in a Class 2 handicap hurdle by a neck from Indefatigable before a 1 & 3/4 length win LTO on January 8th in a Sandown Listed race from the recently retired, Anythingforlove.
Each Way – Extra Places!

That’s everything for you on Day 1 of our 4 day coverage, thanks for popping by & we hope to see you for Day 2.

All the Best – The Arseonlineracing Team

The Cheltenham Festival 2022 – Key trends and analysis.

‘If you don’t get a kick out of a Cheltenham winner, you shouldn’t be in this sport’

After what seems like months of build-up and anticipation, the best 4 days on the calendar are almost here. After the success of last years article, I’m back with trends and stats for plenty of the Festival Grade 1’s to help you find the winners, so lets get started.

Tuesday:

1.30pm The Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle:

41 of the past 48 winners have been aged 5 or 6, while there have been just 3 winners aged 7yo+ in more than 20 years.

Constitution Hill, Dysart Dynamo and Jonbon are fine here along with many others, but its a concern for Sir Gerhard and Kilcruit.

10 of the past 11 winners all won last time out.

All of the market leaders meet this trend, but it’s something to bear in mind if you are planning on looking for an outsider.

Since 2013, only 1 winner has gone in to the race with an official rating of less than 150.

At the current time of writing, the Willie Mullins pair of Dysart Dynamo and Sir Gerhard are the only horses with a rating of 150, Constitution Hill is next best on 148.

Nearly 50% of the winners this century ran in a graded bumper at one of the previous years’ spring festivals.

Not a hugely strong trend, but this is a negative for the Nicky Henderson pair, whilst being a plus for Sir Gerhard and Kilcruit.

Just 1 winner this decade started off on the flat, the rest either started over hurdles in France, or in bumpers.

There are several horses at the current time of writing who are big prices that started out on the flat, if they turn up here, be cautious. 

2.10pm Sporting Life Arkle Challenge Trophy: 

The past 11 winners were aged 6 or 7.

A positive for Blue Lord and many others, but not for current market leader Edwardstone.

Favourites have a great record, with 7 winning in the past decade.

While not meeting the age trend, this will be something to watch should Edwardstone remain strong in the market.

Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson have been responsible for 8 of the last 10 winners.

Respect Blue Lord, Haut En Couleurs and Saint Sam if they go here.

The race favours those who were previously high class over hurdles, with 7 of the last 10 boasting smart Graded form over timber.

Interestingly for an Arkle, none at the top of the betting won a Grade 1 over hurdles, but there are several that have run well and picked up a place. Blue Lord would have been runner-up in last years Supreme but for a fall.

3.30pm Unibet Champion Hurdle:

Only 2 horses aged 5 have won in the past 25 years whilst there has only been a single 9yo winner in recent history and the last horse to win aged 10yo+ was 1981. It’s best to focus on the horses aged 6 to 8.

A positive for many of the market leaders, but the 5yo’s Teahupoo, Zanahiyr and Adagio would need to buck a very strong trend.

Mares have now won 4 of the past 8 renewals

A positive recent trend is a good mare will beat the boys here, which bodes well for recent winners Honeysuckle and Epatante

8 last time out winners followed up here in the past decade.

The 4 at the top of the betting all won on their last start, but it’s a negative for Adagio,Zanahiyr and plenty of outsiders.

Recent history favours those with previous winning course form.

Teahupoo, Zanahiyr and Tommy’s Oscar fall short here.

There has been no winner in modern history of a horse winning a Champion Hurdle on their first start of the season.

A clear concern for Appreciate It, but Willie Mullins of course has previous with Quevega in the Mares during the last decade

Wednesday:

1.30pm Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle:

5 recent winners arrived here unbeaten over hurdles.

A negative for Sir Gerhard should he run here, as well as plenty of outsiders.

Challow Hurdle winners have had a tough time in following up here, the record now stands at 0-18.

This must be a concern for this seasons winner, Stage Star.

The last 10 winners had all won over at least 2m 4f.

Should any of the Mullins or Henderson horses at the top of the Supreme betting head here, this is a negative. Ginto, Journey With Me, Stage Star and Hollow Games all have distance form.

It pays to focus on those near the head of the market, big priced winners are rare in this race, while 6yo’s also are very strong on recent recent trends, winning the past 8 runnings of the Ballymore.

2.10pm Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase:

 9 of the last 10 winners had contested at least 3 chase starts prior to arriving at Prestbury Park.

All near the top of the betting meet this trend, but its worth noting for those who aren’t as experienced at bigger prices.

9 recent winners had previously run at the Festival before

Ahoy Senor and Capodanno fall short on this strong trend.

7yo’s have won 11 of the last 15 renewals.

Bravemansgame, L’Homme Presse and Ahoy Senor come out best here at the top of the market.

6 winners since 2010 have come from the previous years’ Albert Bartlett.

A strong trend, but it may not be so relevant this year. Stattler and Vanillierboth could e heading elsewhere.

Recent history favours those who spent just 1 season over hurdles.

Capodanno, Fury Road and Beacon Edge don’t meet this trend.

3.30pm Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase:

15 of the last 19 winners have been rated 164+ before the off.

All market leaders obviously meet this trend, though its a negative for Funambule Sivola, Put The Kettle on, Envoi Allen and many outsiders.

All 10 winners this decade had at least 7 starts over fences previously.

A negative for Energumene, who has only run 6 times over the larger obstacles.

7 of the previous seasons Arkle winners have followed up here, from just 11 runners.

A big plus for favourite Shishkin.

8 recent winners had all been successful at Cheltenham before.

This could sort a few out, as Energumene, Chacun Pour Soi and Funambule Sivola fall short on this trend from those who are prominent.

Other stats to consider here are to respect Nicky Henderson’s entries as he’s won 5 of the past 10 renewals, whilst horses arriving at Prestbury Park on an unbeaten season have won 5 renewals in recent history.

Thursday:

1.30pm Turners Novices Chase:

One of the newer Festival races with it’s debut in 2011,  but we still have plenty of trends to get stuck into:

10 of the last 11 winners were aged 6 or 7.

A big plus for market principles Bob Olinger and  Galopin Des Champs.

9 of the past 11winners were successful last time out.

A negative for Riviere D’etel, Jungle Boogie, Haut En Colours, Saint Sam and Fury Road should any of them take their chance here.

10 winners returned at a single figure price

It pays to focus on the head of the market, there has been only been a single winner bigger than 9/1.

7 winners this decade had won at Cheltenham before.

Plenty of outsiders in the betting fall short here, so back them with caution.

2.50pm Ryanair Chase:

Previous course form is crucial, only 1 of the past 13 winners had not run at Cheltenham at least twice previously, with 7 of those previous course winners.

Of those with likely entries Conflated hasn’t run here before, while there are several without a Cheltenham win including Shan Blue, Janidil, Melon and Fanion D’Estruval.

10 of the past 13 winners have gained at least 2 wins over the intermediate trips.

Shan Blue, Janidil, Eldorado Allen and Saint Calvados amongst others, don’t meet this trend.

5 of the last 8 winners took part in the previous years Turners Novice Chase.

Shan Blue, Asterion Forlonge and Envoi Allen ran in what was the Marsh Novices Chase in 2021.

Grade 1 winning form is an advantage, with 10 recent winners successful at the top table.

Quite a few without a Grade 1 success, including Eldorado Allen, Melon, Saint Calvados and Mister Fisher.

3.05pm Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle:

Every winner since 2008 was aged between 6 and 9.

Plenty of positives here, but also a negative for Champ and  Paisely Park.

8 recent winners of the Stayers also won last time out.

Most of the principles fall short here, but Paisley Park and Royal Kahala both won on their last start.

8 of the last 13 winners had won at Cheltenham before.

Royal Kahala will need to buck this trend, as would several outsiders.

11 of the past 13 winners had won a race that season.

Flooring Porter and Thyme Hill  haven’t won so far this term, though both have run with credit in defeat at Grade 1 level.

Friday:

1.30pm JCB Triumph Hurdle:

5 of the past 7 winners were unbeaten over hurdles, including the first 2 home last season.

Pied Piper and  Knight Salute are unbeaten from those on the first page of the market.

6 of the last 9 winners won last time out.

Fil Dor, Il Etait Temps, and Teddy Blue were all beaten when last seen.

9 of the last 12 winners had no more than 3 previous starts over hurdles.

Fil Dor, Knight Salute and Porticello fail to meet this trend.

2.50pm Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle:

11 of the past 13 winners had won over at least 2m 7f.

A negative for Ginto, Minella Cocooner, Hollow Games and The Nice Guy  if they turn up here.

7 of the past 8 winners went off at a double-figure price.

The prices will no doubt change, but of all the Grade 1’s this week, this is the race that has consistently produced big priced winners recently.

Of the past 10 renewals, 7 winners finished in the top 3 of a Graded race last time out.

Bardenstown Lad, The Nice Guy, Falcon Eight, Ramillies and many of the current outsiders in the market fall short on this trend.

Only 1 winner in recent history was an ex-flat horse.

Stag Horn and Falcon Eight started off on the level, and face a strong negative trend in this contest.

3.30pm Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup:

Focus on horses aged 7 to 9. No 10yo has won since Cool Dawn in 1998 with Long Run the only 6yo winner in 50 years.

Al Boum Photo will hope to repel this trend, with modern history against him.

Every winner of the past 15 renewals had previously won a Grade 1 chase.

Royal Pagaille and  Asterion Forlonge have not been successful at the highest level over fences.

Recent history favours those with 12 or less chase starts.

Galvin, Minella Indo, Protektorat and Tornado Flyer come out best on this stat.

Only 1 winner since 2010 had not won a race over fences that season.

Minella Indo and Asterion Forlonge have not tasted success this term.

Other trends to note in the Festivals feature race are to focus on those that are 10/1 or shorter in the betting. Also, last time out winners have a very strong recent record.

Stats and words by Chris Price

Photos – AOL File

March 2022

Super Saturday!

Hello & Welcome to Arseonlineracing… The 100% Independent racing website & Podcast with NO affiliate links!

WE STAND WITH UKRAINE

This is likely to be our last Saturday blog for a couple of weeks, usually the Saturday before the Cheltenham Festival is quiet, so we like to prepare for what will be a very hectic 4 days of blogging.

We released our first Podcast, which covered the first day of the Festival, when Jamie & Rich mulled over the Supreme, Champion Hurdle & Arkle. On Thursday, while MOST of the other previews were taking place, Chris, Jamie & Rich recorded Part 2 – Cheltenham Wednesday… (Released on Saturday PM via Spotify)

Kelso Racecourse

Let’s make this a Super Saturday, with Meydan in full swing & the Dubai World Cup on the horizon along with Newbury, Doncaster, Kelso & many other racing fixtures today!

Charlie, Jamie & Rich have you covered today, so let’s get this Super Saturday started…

Charlie –

Newbury 2.27 Class 4 Handicap over 2m69y

Selection – Mark Of Gold – 5yr old Gelding out of Golden Horn and Polly’s Mark. Has had 13 runs in total winning twice on the flat in 2020. Has had 4 starts over hurdles winning twice and finishing 2nd and 5th in the 2 races prior to winning over hurdles and finishing 2nd on his 3 starts at Plumpton. Although was 5th when last seen at Newbury on the 15th December last year, that was first start over hurdles and has learnt from that experience. Won on last 2 outings at Plumpton beginning with a 7 length victory over Dream In The Park on the 19th January and won again on next visit on the 14th February when beating Torbellino by 16 lengths. If showing up in same mindset shown on last 2 runs could have too much class for this field, with biggest danger coming in the shape of Irish Hill from the Paul Nicholls yard who has won 3 times from 6 starts although 2 of those wins were over in France.

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Doncaster 4.05 Class 2 Handicap Hurdle over 3m 84y

Selection – Imphal – 8yr old Gelding out of Nathaniel and Navajo Rainbow. Has had 32 career starts winning 8 times, 4 of those wins were over hurdles starting at Ludlow on the 21st October last year when beating Dynali by 1 length. 2nd hurdles win came at Fontwell on the 5th November when beating Lelantos by a neck with The Tin Miner finishing 3rd some 11 lengths behind first 2 home. The 3rd win came at Huntingdon on the 20th November when beating Dynali by 1 and 1/2 lengths. Was 3rd at Lingfield on next start on the 25th November when behind Malinas Island and Freethinker although was only beaten by 4 lengths. Was a 7 and 1/2 length 2nd behind Ardhill at Ascot on the 18th December. Most recently won at Wincanton on the 20th January this year when beating Acey Milan by 2 and 1/4 lengths. If reproducing the form shown in last 6 starts should be enough to land this race biggest threat to the selection comes in the shape of Sultans Pride who has won his last 2 starts.

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Jamie –

1:20 – Al Bastakiya Stakes (3yo Listed)
Selection – Sari Dubai

This is the main warm up race for the UAE Derby at the end of the month and with no US trained runners it looks an open heat. Having looked through the form at 10/1 (odds at time of writing) Sari Dubai is worth a shot having ran the favourite Bendoog to a closing length and a quarter last time out in a Maiden. The form of that race looks solid as the third Withering, who is in the opposition today won the trial for this race next time out.  Doug Watson’s Colt showed improvement that day from his first run in Dubai when a well held third in a conditions race. Of course, this is another step up in class but I think he has a cracking chance of getting placed. The step up in trip and the likelihood of a stronger pace setup will also suit. Sari Dubai ticks a lot of boxes.

Each way advised!

4:05 – Mahab Al Shimaal (G3)

Selection: Canvassed

A field of ten go to post for this G3 race over 6F which is a trial for the Golden Shaheen on World Cup night. This race has an open feel to it, there is no real standout contender as the market suggests. Canvassed is a horse I follow at the carnival and I like his chances today. The son of Shamardal is a consistent sort who brings some of the best form into the race, which he won last year. So far this campaign Canvassed has registered fifth and second place finishes, that second was a good effort in a G3 over C+D and should put him spot on for this race. His running style from the rear will not be good for the blood pressure but if they go quick enough up front then he should be able to fly home and hopefully pick up another valuable prize. Another to note is Charlie Fellowes’ Ejtilaab who took to the dirt very well last time out and makes appeal at an each way price.

Rich –

Kelso – Soft ( Heavy in Places)
2.40 Premier Chase (Class 1 Listed) – 5yo Plus – 2m 7f 96yds
Big River – Milan X Call Katie 12yo gelding.
4 wins from 4 C&D runs. 8 Wins & 3 places from 11 course runs, gives Big River a BIG shout in this race today, given that he has won 7 times & placed 5 in the ground conditions, despite being the eldest runner in the field.
The gelding steps back up to class 1 level today, having been running in Class 3 handicaps, which were both wins over C&D in December & January. Although his Class 1 form isn’t the greatest, with 4 of the 9 runs in this class coming at Cheltenham. He runs from his highest rating of 145 but is a BIG EACH WAY shout….

3.15 Morebattle Handicap Hurdle – Class 2 – 4yo Plus – 2m 51yds
Buveur D’Air – Crillon X History 11yo gelding.
THe 2018 Champion hurdle winner makes a return after 331 days away from the track. He was last seen in April, when finishing a 4 & 3/4 length 4th to Abacadabras in the Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1). He has won 1 of his last 4 starts & that was at Punchestown in 2019, when landing the the Irish Champion Hurdle.
His last run in this class was back in December 2016, when he beat Cloudy Dream by 3 & 1/4 lengths. The gelding has run over 2m 20 times & has won 14 of them, placing 5 times in this type of ground. A class drop today but gives the field 6LB & is by far the Top Rated horse in the field at 153, while also being the eldest. EACH WAY

I would also like to shout out the chances of Donald McCain & Brian Hughes at Kelso today, they have 3 very good chances today….

That’s all for today folks, our 2 latest articles are available on our website ( AOBFS Classic Contenders & WattySpots – Part 7) along with our February BIG Interviews with Nick Gifford & Anthony Honeyball.
Thanks for popping by & for your continued support, we really appreciate it.

All the Best – The Arseonlineracing Team

WattySpots – Part 7

Hello everyone and welcome to the latest edition of Wattyspots.

February saw myself off to a couple of race days, first up was Haydock for Grand National Trial Day although the tough conditions meant it was very hard work for the horses on an afternoon, which began with heavy rain until mid afternoon, when the sun came out for a bit.

Haydock Park

Friday just gone I popped down to Warwick for their race day, where you could get a heavily discounted entry for £5 and thanks to my R4R( Rewards For Racing ) account having £7 in it, this meant it was effectively a free race day!
While it may not have been the highest quality jump meeting, the novice races in my eye threw up a couple of good ones to keep an eye on so let’s take a look & first up with this one from Haydock.

1 – Crystal Glory – 6yo B Gelding – Trainer : Nicky Richards.

Already a dual point to point winner in Ireland, the Nicky Richards trained 6yo has had a fair start to his jumping career with two wins in novice company at Hexham and Newcastle and took his chance when upped into graded company as he took on the exciting Hillcrest in the Albert Bartlett Trial otherwise known as the Prestige Novices’ Hurdle over 3m at Haydock.

On the ratings he was probably in at the deep end but he showed that he didn’t need armbands as he kept on to be an honest second behind Hillcrest, only go down by eight lengths.

This was a very impressive run in defeat and he is one to note for the future and will make an exciting staying chaser so keep an eye out for those novice chases at Ayr, Carlisle and Kelso in the autumn as this one has lots of potential.

Warwick Racecourse

Warwick Spots

2 – Hauraki Gulf – 7yo B Gelding – Trainer : Deborah Cole.

All trainers love winners but nothing beats having a winner at your local racecourse and for trainer Deborah Cole, who is based near Solihull will have been gutted that her horse Hauraki Gulf didn’t have an extra furlong in Friday’s EBF NH Novice Hurdle over 2m 3f because had he had that extra furlong or so then it’s more than likely he would have won.

A bumper winner at big odds back in December, he showed that it was no fluke on his hurdling debut at Chepstow back in January when finishing fourth although the low sun meant only four of the ten hurdles were actually jumped but here he just got beat by a neck behind Arizona Cardinal.

He needs one more run for a handicap mark & he should win before too long and 2m 4f would be his optimum trip.

3 – Ottoline – 6yo B Mare – Trainer : Venetia Williams.

This mare looked an absolute picture to me in the paddock and despite showing signs of greenness on the course, she ran very impressively on her debut run to finish fourth in the concluding mares’ bumper.

In a race which had some potential nice types in it, the race ran to form as short priced favourite Lutinebella hacked up but Ottoline was prominent throughout and while she did have a wander about at the business end of the race she ran on nicely enough to be only six lengths behind the winner.

She will have learnt plenty from this and will strip far better on her next start I imagine. 

Neil Watson

Article – Neil Watson (@WattyRacing)
Pictures – File (Except Warwick RC – Via Twitter Account)

An Arseonlineracing Production
Published – March 2022