Doncaster(Lincoln) & Dubai W/C Night

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MEGA BLOG –
Doncaster’s Lincoln card & Dubai World Cup night at Meydan

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Right, lets do this…. Doncaster & Meydan covered….

First up is DONCASTER(The going is good, good to firm in places)

Charlie – 3.10 Unibet Lincoln (Class 2) Handicap over 1m

Selection – Born To Be Alive – Out of Born To Sea and Yaria, has had 16 starts winning 3 times, including the Lincoln trial at Wolverhampton last time out when beating On A Session by 1/2 a length. Although Born To Be Alive won that trial, no 7yr old has won the Lincoln in the last 10yrs. Born To Be Alive isn’t your normal type of stats runner, as was off track for almost 3 years so has less miles on the clock than other 7yr old’s and that could swing that stat on its head. Currently available at double figures and is an Eachway selection for me today.

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Rich –

2.00 Mile Stakes – 4yo Plus – Class 1 Listed – 1m…..
Top Rank – Dark Angel X Countess Ferrama 5yo horse.

Ended last season on September 25th at Newmarket in the 1m Group 2 Shadwell Stakes, finishing 6th of 6, 5 & 3/4 lengths behind winner Kameko.
He had won 2 of his previous 3 runs up to that start, rising from winning a class 3,1m Thirsk handicap by 4 & 1/2 lengths in July to landing the 1m Group 3 Superior Mile Stakes at Haydock on September 8th. The race in-between the 2 wins was a 1 length 3rd to Montatham in a York 1m Class 2 handicap, with Sir Busker in 2nd.
He is 5 wins & 1 place from 7 runs over 1m….
DANGER – Monthatham – Showcasing X Eastern Destiny 5yo gelding.
3 wins from 6 runs in 2020, with 2 runner up spots. Ended 2020 finishing a 15 length 19th of 27 over 1m 1f in the Cambridgeshire class 2 handicap, that was his 2nd run in 10 days having finished a 3 l3ngth runner up to Posted in the 1m Class 1 Fortune Stakes at Sandown…..

3.10 Lincoln Handicap – Class 2 – 4yo Plus – 1m….
Danyah – Invincible Spirit X Cuis Ghaire 4yo gelding.
3 wins from 7 career runs including a win over 7f at this course on seasonal return in June 2020 in a class 4 handicap by 3 lengths. Finished 3rd of 18 in a Class 3 Newbury 7f on August 16th before stepping up in trip & class. He finished 3rd of 10 over 1m at Ripon in a class 2 handicap before ending 2020 at Haydock on September 26th by landing a 10 runner 1m class 2 handicap by 1 & 1/2 lengths…

MEYDAN – Turf – good…./ Dirt – fast….

Chris –

12.50 Dubai Gold Cup sponsored by Al Tayer Motors

 
Secret Advisor made a fair reappearance in Saudi Arabia last time out, finishing 3rd and giving weight away to his rivals in the Red Sea Handicap. He meets Spanish Mission off levels today and looks a warm order to add to his perfect record here in the desert. This is his first try at 2m, but given how’s he’s shaped over 1m 6f here in the past there are no concerns regarding stamina. He must go close with William Buick in the saddle.

4.50 Dubai Gold Cup sponsored by Emirates Airline

A fascinating renewal with no obvious world beater that we’ve seen on occasions in the past. My preference is for American raider Jesus’ Team, who has put up some creditable efforts in defeat. He was no match for Knicks Go in the Pegasus last time, but stayed on at the one-pace to finish 2nd, having charted a wide path all the way round the home turn. It was a similar story in the Breeders Cup Mile last November, where a wide stall did him no favours before running on for 2nd. He looks worth a crack at 10f and should be doing his best work late home, with the current odds making him a good each-way bet to nothing.

Jamie –

2:40 – Dubai Golden Shaheen – Selection: Matera Sky

This race is going to take some winning with a furious gallop likely. I am going to side with team Japan here and the unlucky Matera Sky, who deserves a big day in the sun. My selection has been agonisingly beaten narrowly in the dying strides of the last two renewals Saudi Dirt Sprints. It has to be said that his is a deeper contest than that Saudi race. Matera Sky has devastating mid race pace but I think if Keita Tosaki can just delay his challenge a little more then she might have a little more to give in the last 50 yards. The race could set up well for her and she has a nice draw in gate 4.
Capano Kicking who reapposes denied her last time out. While Yaupon is a worthy favourite. Red Le Zele could pick up the pieces at a nice price if the race falls apart.

3:30 – Dubai Turf – Selection: Al Suhail

This looks a cracking race on paper over the extended mile trip. Lord North holds a big chance on his best form and has been reportedly been working very well, but with a run under his belt and at his ideal distance, Al Suhail can strike for the boys in blue here. It looked like he was going to hold on to win the trial for this race three weeks ago but race fitness caught him out as he was collared late on by Lord Glitters. I am confident with that good runout after a 240 day break that Al Suhail will overturn the form with Lord Glitters. Al Suhail would be seen to best affect with a strongly run race to give him a tow into the straight. He’s not the most straightforward horse in the world but he has a lot of talent. My nap of the meeting. At a big price Land of Legends could sneak into a place trying a new trip today.

3:30 – Dubai Turf – Selection: Al Suhail

4:50 – Dubai World Cup – Selection: Hypothetical

Hypothetical has been one of the standout horses of the Carnival this year and I think he can run a big race here. I am counting my on selection’s course form and experience to come into play here. The American horses may be classier but Hypothetical is on an upward curve with form figures of 14212 at the this year’s Carnival. He has progressed from handicaps to being a runner up in the trial for this race behind Salue The Soldier. He is still unexposed at this trip (0-1) and at around 12/1 Hypothetical makes plenty of each way appeal. I fancy Jesus Team for the win if they go quick up front. To be honest, this doesn’t look a vintage World Cup but it is no less fascinating.

Each way advised.

Charlie –

4.10 Longines Dubai Sheema Classic (Group 1) over 1m 4f 11y

Selection –

Walton Street- Out of Cape Cross and Brom Felinity, has had 16 races winning 6 times, including when breaking track record here last time out when beating Dubai Future by 3 and 1/2 lengths. This is tougher but Walton Street has the ability to mix it at the top level and deserves to be in this field. Currently available at around the 9-1 price and could outrun those odds. Eachway Advised.

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4.50 Dubai World Cup (Group 1) over 1m 2f

Selection –

Salute The Soldier – Out of Sepoy and Street Fire, has had 21 career starts winning 8 times including when landing a Group 1 here last time out when beating Hypothetical by 1 and 3/4 lengths. That made it 3 group wins for Salute The Soldier and although this is tougher on paper, Salute The Soldier could easily outrun current price of 8-1. Eachway Advised.

Rich –

1.30 Al Quoz Sprint – Turf – 3yo Plus – Group 1 – 6f…
Space Blues – Dubawi X Miss Lucifer 5yo horse.
4 wins from 4 starts in 2020 including the Group 1 Prix Maurice De Gheest over 6 & 1/2f on August 9th. Was off the track for 195 days before returning in Riyadh in the 6 & 1/2f Turf Sprint on February 20th, winning by 3/4’s of a length on season return.
The ONE to beat….

4.50 Dubai World Cup – Group 1 – 4yo Plus – 1m 2f….
Magny Cours – Medaglia d’Oro X Indy Five Hundred 6yo gelding.
4 wins from 8 career starts for the French raider, which include 2 Listed wins at Chantilly & Sandown, when landing the 2020 1m 2f Gala Stakes by a neck, his last start of 2020.
Made seasonal return on the Alll Weather over 1m 1f 97yds at Chantilly winning the Darshaan Stakes. He is 3 from 3, i understand the all weather is not dirt & is untried on the surface. This maybe an issue but he has a very nice DIRT pedigree, with his Dam Sire is A. P. Indy…. Chance

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Pictures – File

Gold Cup Day – Cheltenham

Welcome to Arseonlineracing’s Cheltenham Gold Cup day coverage,,,, The 100% independent website with NO affiliate links….

This is it folks, the pinnacle of the Festival, the race we have all been waiting for!
WILL Al Boum Photo retain his crown & win the race for the 3rd season in a row? Or will we have a new Champion??

We are now 3 days in, so lets have a look at the AOL Cheltenham Blog table….
FINAL FESTIVAL TABLE

1 Rich – 1 winner & 5 Places from 9 inc 28/1 winner, 40/1, 2 x 10/1 & 2 x 14/1 places
2 Chris -1 winner & 5 Places from 9
3 Jamie – 1 winner & 4 places from 9
4 Charlie – 1 Winner & 4 Places from 9

As it’s the final day of our coverage & the pinnacle of the Festival, our NH stalwart Chris takes the lead on the blog today( Obviously, the pinnacle of his AOL career to date too!)

Chris –

1.20pm JCB Triumph Hurdle

Zanahiyr went into my notebook for this after winning his maiden hurdle last October, the son of Nathaniel then bolted up in the Bar One Juvenile Hurdle at Fairyhouse. The time of that race stacks up well against the Grade 1 Royal Bond won by Ballyadam on the same card. He followed up in the Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle at Christmas, beating Saint Sam comfortably who was placed in the Boodles on Tuesday. Another step forward is obviously required here, but he has an excellent chance of with conditions to suit. UNPLACED

3.05 WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup

A Plus Tard has been a solid horse over fences over the past 3 season’s winning a pair of Grade 1’s and the Novices Handicap Chase back here in 2019. He took his form to another level when winning a red-hot Savills Chase in December. Looking back at the race, the front pair didn’t set an overly strong pace, so it was to my selection’s credit that he came from so far back and ran them down at the line. That finishing burst will be required again here, as will his ability to travel at a fair clip, which will most likely be the case today with Frodon and Native River out front. This could cap a magical week of firsts for Rachael Blackmore.

3.40 St James’s Palace Hunters Chase

I was hoping Bob And Co would line up here last season after 2 comfortable wins in Hunter Chases, but connections opted for another year before going for the big prize. Bob And Co reappeared at Haydock last month, and duly romped home by 17 lengths from a pair of useful rivals. Paul Nicholls knows how to win this after taking the 2017 and 2018 editions with Pacha Du Polder and whilst most of his form is on soft ground, he has won on good-to-soft in his younger days. I’m expecting him to be bang there up the hill.

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Charlie –

1.55 McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) over 2m 179y

Selection – Third Time Lucky, 6yr old Gelding out of Arcadio and Definite Valley, has had 9 races in total although 1st run was a point to point where he finished a 3 and 1/4 length 2nd to Thomas Shelby, of the remaining 8 races Third Time Lucky ended up winning 5 of them and finishing 2nd twice and placing 3rd once. The wins have came at Market Rasen, Huntingdon, Uttoxeter, Wetherby and Kempton. Has had two races at Cheltenham the first was on the 11th March 2020 in the Champion Bumper when finishing 4th behind Ferny Hollow, Appreciate It and Queens Brook. The most recent run at Cheltenham came on the 15th November last year when beaten into 2nd by For Pleasure who had a 3 and 1/4 length advantage at the line, Jungle Junction was a further 13 lengths adrift in 3rd.

Verdict- Third Time Lucky has had two decent races at Cheltenham and deserves to be in the winners enclosure, his yard have won 3 of the last 5 renewals and will be looking to add to that today, biggest threats to the selection come in the shape of Champagne Gold and Ganapathi.
6th (Some bookies paid 6 places)

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2.30 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle (Grade 1) over 2m 7f 213y

Selection – Barbados Bucks, 6yr old Gelding out of Getaway and Buck’s Blue, has had 6 races on UK soil 4 of them over hurdles winning 3 times and finishing 2nd in the other. The wins have came at Southwell X 2 and Kempton last time out on the 9th January when beating Fedelta by 4 lengths with Slipway a further 2 and 1/4 lengths behind in 3rd.

Verdict – Barbados Bucks has the potential to be a very good hurdler for Paul Nicholls as he looks to add to his Cheltenham winners, biggest threat to the selection comes in the shape of Torygraph who has won last two starts. UNPLACED

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3.05 Gold Cup (Grade 1) over 3m 2f 70y

Selection – A Plus Tard, 7yr old Gelding out of Kapgarde and Turboka, has had 10 Chase starts winning 4 times and placing in the other 6, the wins have came at Naas, Cheltenham and Leopardstown. Won the Close Brothers Novices Chase in 2019 when beating Tower Bridge by 16 lengths with Ben Dundee a further 4 and 1/2 lengths behind in 3rd. Was 3rd in the Ryan Air behind winner Min and Saint Calvados.

Verdict – A Plus Tard has some decent form in the book and could spring a surprise win here against Al Boum Photo who’s looking to make it 3 gold cups in a row. Of the rest Native River could sneak a place at a price as could Kemboy.

Jamie –

1:20 – JCB Triumph Hurdle – Selection: Tritonic

Alan King does very well with juvenile hurdlers and he has a great chance to land a third Triumph Hurdle with Tritonic. The son of Sea The Moon really opened up after the last at Kempton in the Adonis and went into my notebook for this race. Tritonic has travelled very strongly into his races and the further he goes, the better he appears to be going. Cheltenham will demand more of a stamina test than Kempton but a strongly run race will suit him and he can sit off a strong pace and pounce up the straight. Zanahiyr is a big danger and deserves to be favourite on all known form. If Tritonic jumps as fluently and quickly as he did at Kempton he should be right in the mix coming up the hill. UNPLACED

2:30 – Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle – Torygraph

The Cullentra stable of Denise Foster hold a strong in the big race of the week for staying novice hurdlers. Fakeira is well fancied and I can see why but I like Torygraph at a slightly bigger price. The selection has won his last two races and the form stacks up reasonably well. He won a four runner novice hurdle at Thurles from Angels Dawn, who went very close to winning a graded hurdle at Navan. Torygraph will undoubtedly have to improve from that Thurles race but he wouldn’t be at Cheltenham if connections think he hadn’t. The quicker ground conditions do pose a question mark but if he improves for racing on a sounder surface then he has every chance. Staying power looks to be this horse’s main strength and that is what is needed to win an Albert Bartlett. The stables horses have been running consistently well all week and he is a nice price. UNPLACED

3:05 – WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup – Selection: Champ (Nap)

This is the race have all been waiting for. There is many in with chances and Al Boum Photo will be tough to beat here. However, he faces new challengers today and I have to say I think the Gold Cup will bring out the best in Champ. Last years RSA Chase winner is proven at Cheltenham and the extended trip today should be right up his street. We had to wait a long time to see Champ this season and not many would have pictured his reappearance being at Newbury over 2m in the Game Spirit. Despite the big drop in trip Champ coped very well and connections will have been delighted with the way he jumped and travelled to finish second. He will have to jump similarly well to have any chance here. The ground is perfect for him and at the prices he is good value. I am hoping he will storm up the hill like last year. It looks like being a strongly run race and that will play to the strengths of Champ.

Rich –

1.20 JCB Triumph Hurdle – 4yo Only – Grade 1 – 2m 179yds…
Adagio – Wiener Walzer X Aspidistra 4yo gelding
3 wins & 1 place from is 4 hurdle starts. His 1 place came at this course in the Grade 2 over 2m 87yds when finishing 5 lengths to Duffle Coat back on November 10th in the trail for this race, having won on hurdle debut at Warwick by 7 & 1/2 lengths, just a week before finishing 2nd here!
Made no mistake on December 12thwhen returning back here, to land the Class 2 C&D trial for this race from Historic Heart by 4 & 3/4 lengths. Made it 3 wins from 4 starts by landing the Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle, Grade 1 on January 9th by 2 & 1/2 lengths….
If one of the bigger players falter, he is in with a big shout of either winning or placing… 2nd

2.30 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle – 4yo Plus – 2m 8f…..
Streets of Doyen – Doyen X Satco Street 7yo gelding.
Had been running unsuccessfully over 2m before stepping up in trip to 24f (3m) & then he won 4 on the bounce, rising in the ratings from 113 to 135, a run which included a C&D win in a Class 2 Novice Hurdle on October 24th 2020. Was given a break & returned over 1m 7f, his old trip in a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle, finishing 6th of 7 runners. Now back up to 24f, he will be looking add to his 4 from 4 over this distance!
Has an Each Way chance… 3rd

3.05 Gold Cup – 5yo Plus – Grade 1 – 3m 2f 70yds….
Native River – Indian River X Native Mo 11yo gelding.
3rd to Sizing John in 2017, winner in 2018 & 4th in 2019 to Al Boum Photo, Native River has history with this race. Having missed last years festival & seeing Al Boum Photo win back to back Gold Cups, he is back to try & regain his crown…
He won the Denman Grade 2 Chase at Newbury prior to last season’s festival but had an issue so had a nice rest. returned after 301 days at Aintree in the Many Clouds Chase (Miss that horse) Grade 2 over 3m 1f & finished 3rd to Lake View Lad by 3 lengths.
His last run at Sandown on February 6th in the 3m 37yd Grade 2 Cotswold Chase, showed the rest of the NH world that Native River can still win & boy did he win well.
He routed the field by 9 & 1/2 lengths & in 2nd was Bristol De Mai…
The 3 others to keep an eye on are… Champ, who if he jumps well then he will be very much in the mix, A Plus Tard, who is the improver in the field & Al Boum Photo, who is looking for his 3rd Gold Cup on the trot….
Native River will run a big race & out run his double figure odds…
Some bookies paying 5 places & at around 12/1, can out run them odds….

That is the end of our festival coverage 2021, we would like to thank each & everyone of you for popping in & for your support. We wish you all the best & we hope we have helped in some way, add to your enjoyment of the festival & the fantastic horses that have graced the festival….

STAY SAFE & Thank you.
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All the Best – The Arseonlineracing Team

Cheltenham Gold Cup: Runner by Runner preview

Hello and welcome to Arseonlineracing’s runner by runner preview of the 2021 WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup. It’s the blue riband of the festival and the most prestigious prize in jumps racing. Let’s look in alphabetical order of the 12 horses lining up trying to capture this mighty race. I hope this runner by runner preview will help you to narrow down your Gold Cup selection.

Going for Gold: Will it be a historic hat trick for Al Boum Photo?

Al Boum Photo

Age: 9

Form: /211-1

The defending champ holds outstanding claims in his bid for an historic hat trick. He made easy work of his comeback run at Tramore on New Year’s Day and is the one to beat here. However, new challengers pose a big threat. Al Boum Photo will have to be better than ever to win a third Gold Cup. He is a tactically versatile horse and very straightforward to ride. Paul Townend will have a target on his back though.

A Plus Tard

Age: 7

Form: 213-21

The former Festival winner is the clear choice of Racheal Blackmore. This 7yo won the Savills Chase at Leopardstown getting up to beat Kemboy in the dying strides. A Plus Tard looks to be better than ever this season but I would have my doubts about his stamina up the hill against the likes of an Al Boum Photo or Santini. Big chance though if he does stay and he is not short of pace on good ground.

Aso

Age: 11

Form: 7-7F22

Admirable veteran who has boasts some smart Cheltenham form with a close second to Frodon in the 2019 Ryanair Chase and a Grade 3 handicap chase win on New Year’s Day in 2019. He has re-found a bit of spark lately after a spell in the doldrums. It was a really good effort when he was just touched off by Two For Gold at Warwick, then Aso was sent to Kelso a few weeks to tackle Cloth Cap in the Premier Chase. In the end he battled on well to be second of five but was no match for the winner. All truth being told though he is a big outsider here and looks completely outclassed.

Black Op

Age: 10

Form: 22-496

Things haven’t exactly gone to plan for Black Op this season. He has been well beaten in all three starts behind Imperial Aura, Cloth Cap & Frodon with that Carlisle effort behind Ryanair contender Imperial Aura (beaten 4 1/2l) being his best performance. He looks outclassed in this company and I have my doubts that Black Op’s stamina will last up the hill anyway.

Champ

Age: 9

Form: 11F1-2

The leading contender for the home team as they look to wrestle back the Gold Cup from Ireland. Champ looks ready made for this sort of test having stayed on powerfully to win the RSA Chase last year. The signs were very positive on his reappearance at Newbury last month when an excellent second to Sceau Royal over 2m. Champ’s jumping was superb, and he is a big threat to the favourite here. He has been trained for this race by a master of his craft.

Frodon

Age: 9

Form: 14-141

The King George VI Chase winner could be one of the better each way punts in this race. Frodon boasts an excellent 6/11 record over fences at Cheltenham, including that famous Ryanair victory here two years ago. I’m not sure if he ideally would like 3m 2 1/2f trip and the Kempton form doesn’t overly appeal to me, but he is as tough as nails and won’t give in easily. If Frodon can jump like he did at Kempton, then that will stand him in good stead.

Who will be kissing the famous trophy on Friday afternoon?

Kemboy

Age: 9

Form: 27-221

The second string of the Mullins team has looked back to his best this season with a big win in the Irish Gold Cup the highlight so far. Kemboy has already tried his luck twice in the Gold Cup and hasn’t really figured in either with a 12l seventh to Al Boum Photo last year and in 2019 he unseated David Mullins early. He does bring in some good solid form and his Christmas second to A Plus Tard puts him right in the mix, but I think Kemboy is just a better horse on a flat course.

Lostintranslation

Age: 9

Form: P3-3P5

The recent form of Lostintranslation doesn’t inspire much confidence but I wouldn’t write him off just yet. Last time out I thought he jumped well and travelled nicely into the Denman Chase at Newbury, before he got tired and tailed off to be fifth in the end. However, Robbie Power has said that he needed the run that day and he was happy with how he ran. Don’t forget this horse ran a huge race in the Gold Cup last year, jumping the last upsides Al Boum Photo. Unlike at Christmas when he was pulled up at Kempton, the Tizzard horses are now back in top form. I can see him being in the mix.

Minella Indo

Age: 8

Form: 2-11F4

Minella Indo has long been touted as a Gold Cup horse and now he gets his chance to prove his backers right. He has a bit of ground to make up with Champ from last year’s 3m Novice Chase at the Festival. It has been a bit of a mixed bag for Minella Indo this season with easy back to back wins in graded races at Wexford & Naas before a bad mistake seen him fall at Leopardstown in the Savills. I expected a bit more from Minella Indo in the Irish Gold Cup last time out, his jumping was slow and scratchy. He will need to pull out more if he is to make his presence felt. Better ground may help though.

Native River

Age: 11

Form: /11-31

The 2018 victor is a fan favourite and it’s easy to see why. Native River rolled back the years last time out at Sandown when giving Bristol De Mai a good beating on his favourite heavy ground. I think he does need the ground to be testing if he is going to be a threat here. Native River’s main asset is his staying power and jumping, in many ways he does remind me of Denman. Richard Johnson, his regular jockey says he is in tip top form at home and I can see him getting involved if conditions are very soft / heavy.

Royal Pagaille

Age: 7

Form: 23-111

Rich Ricci is on the hunt for his first Gold Cup and in the shape of Royal Pagaille I think he has a real live chance. Unbeaten this season and rising through the ranks with ease, the Venetia Williams trained gelding looks to be the potential dark horse of the race. He did really did hose up at Haydock in the Peter Marsh back in January, it was very pleasing to watch. Stamina looks assured and with age on his side this could be the first of multiple runs in the Gold Cup. Maybe this will be a year too soon, but we will only know at about 3:15 on Friday.

Santini

Age: 9

Form: 12-253

Santini hasn’t enjoyed a great season so far and arrives into this year’s race with some question marks hanging over him. Runner up in 2020, Santini does tick quite a few of the Gold Cup boxes. He stays this extended trip very well and with the way this year’s contest may develop with Frodon and Native River ensuring a good gallop up front he could pounce up the hill. I do like him as a good e/w play and if he can stay in touch coming down the hill he’s got a chance. First time headgear angle will hopefully help Santini to travel better, but he does need to put that well beaten third to Native River at Sandown behind him.

Verdict:

What a race in prospect. Al Boum Photo is absolutely the one to beat and is reportedly in top form. Champ & A Plus Tard are new challengers to him and pose a big threat, while the likes of Native River & Lostintranslation could be the best of the outsiders and nick a place. I fancy Royal Pageille to be the dark horse if there is to be an upset. I’m going to get off the fence now and say that Champ will make it a second Gold Cup for Nicky Henderson and JP McManus. I think this is the perfect race for him in terms of distance and the way in which this race could be run.

Written by Jamie Lindsay

Picture credit: Francesca Aloft Photography

March 2021

Cheltenham – Thursday

Welcome to Arseonlineracing… The 100% independent website with NO affiliate links….
Our continued coverage of the 2021 Cheltenham Festival – Ryanair & Stayers Day…

What a day we had on Wednesday with Bob Olinger & Monkfish winning but sadly Chacun Pour Soi was beaten & you have to take your hat off to Aidan Coleman & Put The Kettle On a fantastic performance from horse & jockey….
The BIG races on the card on day 3 of the festival are the Ryanair & Stayers & what a race it looks like on paper, will it live up to expectation’s??

The AOL Cheltenham Blog Table…..

1 Chris – 1 win & 3 places
2 Charlie – 1 win & 2 places
3 Jamie – 1 win & 2 places
4 Rich – 1 win & 2 places

We start day 3 with Jamie taking the lead on the blog….

Jamie –

2:30 – Ryanair Chase (G1) – Selection: Fakir D’Oudairies

I am going to put my neck on the line here and select Fakir D’Oudairies here for the win. I was firmly in the Min camp for this before he was pulled up at Leopardstown last month. At an attractive price and in an open looking contest Joseph O’Brien’s gelding is in with a chance based on his previous Cheltenham form. He was runner up to Champion Chaser Put The Kettle in the Arkle last year and that form looks very solid now. Fakir D’Oudairies had two disappointing runs, including being pulled up at Leopardstown over Christmas but he returned to somewhere near top form when second at the Dublin Racing Festival to Chacun Por Soi. He showed some positive signs that day and I think this step up trip will help him and so will the better ground. He has got a realistic chance of winning. At a big price Real Steel who ran so well in the Gold Cup last year could sneak into a place with a bit of luck.

3:40 – Paddy Power Plate Handicap (G3) – Selection: Farclas

The Gigginstown owned 7yo gelding makes some appeal in this typically hot 2m 4½f contest. Farclas has been running very well in some of the biggest handicap chases in Ireland this season. First up he took in a Grade B Handicap on Morgiana Hurdle day at Punchestown where he was a respectable 5th of 17th on what wasn’t ideal conditions for the grey. Two trips to Leopardstown have brought a 3rd and a 4th place. That 4th came in arguably the hottest intermediate trip Irish handicap of the season at the Dublin Racing Festival when he was a close 4th. Racing on good ground will really help him and he has a lot of pace being a former Triumph Hurdle winner, but he does stay well too. Farclas looks to have another big win in him and I hope today will be the day!

Chris –

2.30 Ryanair Chase

Melon has been a standing dish at the last few Festivals, running some pretty strong races in defeat and finishing 2nd on 4 occasions. He ran flat at the Dublin Racing Festival last month, but he was held up and that didn’t appear to suit. He also put in a below-par run at that meeting last term, before going down by a nose in the Marsh back here. He’s slightly shorter in the betting than I’d have liked in such a wide open contest, but he has outstanding each-way claims with bookies likely to be offering extra places.

3.05 Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle

This race has lost a little bit of its lustre with Thyme Hill ruled out, but I’d have backed Paisley Park to confirm the Long Walk Hurdle form here, with his chance now only enhanced I won’t be changing my mind. Not at his best last season, Paisley Park has done little wrong in both starts this term, and arrives here a fresher horse than previous years after Trials day was abandoned. Still only a 9yo he is strong on many trends though this race was of course a trend buster last season.

Charlie – 1.55 Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Grade3) 2m 8f for 5yr Old’s +

Selection – The Boss’s Oscar, 6yr old Gelding out of Oscar and Cuteasafox, has had 8 races under rules winning 3 times and placing 2nd in another 4 races. The wins have came at Thurles X 2 and Leopardstown X 1, the 2nd places have came at Punchestown,Thurles, Navan and Leopardstown. Has ran over 3m the last two starts finishing 2nd on both occasions. Yard have won the last 3 renewals and will be looking to make that 4, biggest threat comes in the shape of Imperial Alcazar who has won twice from last 3 starts.

4.15 – Dawn Run Mares Novices Hurdle (Grade 2) over 2m 179y

Selection – Hook Up – 5yr old Mare Out of No Risk At All and Mission Accomplie, has had 9 races under rules although first 4 of those were on French soil. Made Irish debut for W Mullins on the 22nd February 2020 when finishing 3rd behind Burning Victory and Great Bear. Finished 11th at Cheltenham on the 13th March behind winner Burning Victory. Was then sent to Fairyhouse on the 28th November last year and won, beating Gars De Sceaux by 12 lengths with John Cannon a further 4 and 1/2 lengths adrift in 3rd. Returned to Fairyhouse on the 3rd January this year and finished a 5 length 2nd to Royal Kahala with Razzle Dazzle Love a further 7 lengths adrift in 3rd. Another visit to Leopardstown was on the agenda for Hook Up on the 7th February when finishing 4th behind winner Appreciate It who won the Supreme here on Tuesday.

Verdict- Hook Up although hasn’t been prolific so far has ran in some decent races and wasn’t disgraced in defeat to Appreciate It as was only 7 and 1/2 lengths behind last time out. With normal progress can get revenge on Royal Khahala who was 5 lengths in front in that race at Fairyhouse when these 2 last locked horns back in January .

Rich –

1.55 Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle – Grade 3 – 5yo Plus – 2m 8f…
Imperial Alcazar – Vinnie Roe X Maddy’s Supreme 7yo gelding.
Won 3 of 4 starts last season with 1 place before returning in a Grade 3 Stayers 3m 58yds Hurdle at Haydock on November 21st, finishing 9th of 17.
Last seen at Warwick on January 15th in a Class 2 Pertemps 3m 1f Handicap Hurdle, winning by 2 & 1/4 lengths & is raised 8lbs for that. A course winner here in January 2020, when taking the Ballymore Listed Novice Hurdle, so has course experience…

2.30 Ryanair Chase – Grade 1 – 5yo Plus – 2m 4f 127yds…
Imperial Aura – Kalanisi X Missindependence 8yo gelding.
4 wins & 2 places from 7 chase starts, winner of 2 Listed Chases & a Grade 2 Chase.
Landed the Northern Trust Novice Chase at the Festival last year beating Galvin by 3 & 1/4 lengths, the last time Galvin was beaten, now 4/4 since that day!
Won the 2m 4f Intermediate Listed Chase at Carlisle on return this season on November 1st before beating Itchy Feet at Ascot in the 2m 5f 1965 Grade 2 Chase on November 21st.
Unseated his jockey at Kempton on January 9th in the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase at the second fence, I would put a line through that run, so will be fresh & had won his 3 previous starts prior to Kempton…
Some bookies are paying 5 places…

That is everything for you today folks…. Thanks for popping by & for your support, we really appreciate it…. STAY SAFE.
GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY

All the Best – The Arseonlineracing Team

Cheltenham – Wednesday

Welcome to Arseonlineracings Cheltenham Festival coverage….. This website has NO affiliate links & is 100% independent….

How did we do one day 1…
Charlie – Appreciate It (Won) Epatante (3rd)
Chris – Happygolucky (2nd) Honeysuckle (Won)
Jamie – Roksana (3rd) Remastered (Unplaced)
Rich – For Pleasure (3rd) Vintage Clouds (Won)

Right then folks…. Where do we start?? What performances from Appreciate It, Shishkin & Honeysuckle and how impressive was Vintage Clouds, at 11yo & Galvin today….

We are changing it up everyday & Rich takes the lead on Day Two…..

Rich –

2.30 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle – 4yo Plus – Grade 3 – 2m 5f…..
Thomas Darby – Beneficial X Silaoce 8yo gelding.
Missed the festival last year having finished runner up to Klassical Dream in the 2019 Supreme Hurdle. He ran twice over fences before reverting back to hurdles. He has won once in his last 4 runs & that was at Ascot in January 2020 in a Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle. His last 3 starts have all finished with 3rd place finishes including in the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle, finishing 2 & 1/2 lengths behind winner, McFabulous.
Top Rated 155 & Top Weight 11s 12lb… Also wears first time Cheek Pieces..
Has an Each Way chance, with some bookies paying 7 places!

4.15 Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase – 5yo Plus – Grade 3 – 1m 8f…
Not That Fuisse – Fuisse X Edelmira 8yo gelding.
Has not run over fences since finishing 4th of 10 in the Haldon Gold Cup 2m 1f at Exeter in November. Had a wind operation & returned on January 18th at Lingfield on the All Weather in a 2m ‘ Jumpers Bumper’ Class 4 & finished in the places before winning a similar event at Newcastle over 2m 56yds from Onthefrontfoot by 3 & 1/4 lengths. Has run over this distance 10 times with 3 wins & 3 places from those 10 starts.
Each Way with some bookies paying 6 places.

Jamie –

1:20 – Ballymore Novices Hurdle (G1) – Selection: Bob Olinger (NAP)

Another small field of runners go to post for the opener on day 2. A small field won’t pose any problems for my selection Bob Olinger here. He was impressive in the way he dispatched Blue Lord in the Grade 1 Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle back in January. Blue Lord would have been runner up in the Supreme had he not fallen at the last. Bob Olinger is held in high regard by the team at the Henry De Bromhead stable and is in with a great shout here. There is a couple of questions mark to answer with this being his first trip over to England and the quicker ground conditions but neither worry me too much. The big dangers are Gaillard Du Mesnil & Bravemansgame who are both recent top level winners. Bob Olinger will need to have improved from Naas to win this Ballymore but the vibes from the stable are very positive and he is my nap of the entire Festival.

4:50 – Champion Bumper (G1) – Selection: Kilcruit

Willie Mullins goes in search of an incredible 11th win in this race and he holds strong claims with Kilcruit leading his team. This race looks like it could well be a dust up between the two Closutton trained beasts Kilcruit & Sir Gerhard, formerly trained by Gordon Elliott. The betting suggests so and I am siding with Kilcruit. He was the easiest winner of a graded bumper you’ll ever see at Leopardstown last time out. Patrick Mullins didn’t have to even move his hands. Yes, to a degree the race fell apart and into his lap but the manner of the victory was searingly impressive and I am a little surprised he isn’t a shorter price but that is good for myself and fellow punters. He has the form in the book and will have to be in top form if he is to beat Sir Gerhard. I think the quicker ground conditions will suit him well. He looks a stayer with pace which is what you need to win this race. Big chance.

Chris –

1.20pm Ballymore Novices Hurdle

Gaillard Du Mesnil was a game winner at the Dublin Racing Festival last month, keeping on strongly over 2m 6f. He drops back slightly on trip here, but he has already proved he isn’t short of pace when travelling powerfully over 2m 4f at Christmas. The Ballymore has usually been a race to focus on those at the head of the betting, while previous Graded hurdle winners have won 8 of the past 10 renewals. I’m hoping Gaillard Du Mesnil can be full of running up the famous hill , when others have cried enough.

2.30 Coral Cup Handicap

Nicky Henderson runners in this wide-open handicap are usually worth respecting, and he arrives here with some very live chances. Monte Cristo arrives at Prestbury Park having destroyed a fairly competitive boxing day handicap at Kempton over this trip. Raised 12lb for that it’s no surprise he hasn’t been seen since. Runners who have had a break of 35+ days and had less than 10 hurdle starts come out very strong on trends here, with Monte Cristo also right in the middle of the correct rating range. Currently a fair double-figure price, he makes plenty of appeal. At huge odd’s its worth a little look at Janika for the same connections, who is well-in on his chase rating and isn’t fully exposed over hurdles.

Charlie –

4.15 Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

Selection – Zanza – Out of Arcadio and What a Bleu, has some decent handicap form when he was hurdling, made step up to chases on the 11th October 2020 when finishing 4th behind Eldorado Allen over 2m 75y at Newton Abbot. Was sent to Warwick on the 6th November and was beaten 13 lengths by Allmankind with Stolen Silver a further 8 and 1/2 lengths behind in 3rd. Was then sent to Newbury on the 28th November to race over 2m 92y and Zanza won beating The King Of May by 5 and 1/2 lengths with Marracudja a further 2 and 1/4 lengths behind in 3rd. Was sent to Cheltenham for latest run on the 12th December last year and fell 3 out after travelling well.

Verdict – If Zanza gets a clear round of jumping he can get a bit of compensation here in a very open looking race, biggest threat comes in the shape of Ibleo who has a decent strike rate over fences although is considerably higher in the weights.

4:50 – Champion Bumper (Group 1)

Selection – Elle Est Belle – Out of Fame And Glory and Katalina, this 5yr old Mare has only had two races and won both. The first of those wins came at Aintree on the 25th October last year when beating Windswept Girl by 5 and 1/2 lengths over 2m 209y. Was then sent here for latest run on the 14th November and dead heated with Ishkhara Lady with Jersey Lady a further 4 and 3/4 lengths behind in 3rd.

Verdict – Elle Est Belle, although has the little experience in this field, that doesn’t mean that she’s just making up numbers, she has course form and low mileage on the clock and at a nice Eachway price.

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That is everything for you today folks….. Thanks for your support…. STAY SAFE.
Gamble Responsibly

All the Best – The Arseonlineracing Team

Cheltenham – Tuesday

Welcome to Arseonlineracing’s Cheltenham coverage, we will bring you a blog on ALL 4 days….
This website is 100% independent & has NO affiliate links….

Here we are again…. A year older, possibly a bit more wiser (In some cases, but not all) and the first Festival with no fans… So we have to make the best of what we have & we will try to help you do that…
Our results will be edited into each blog at the end of the day & we will be running a table after day 2 to see WHICH ONE of the 4 of us is having the best festival…..

Charlie – 1.20 Supreme Novices Hurdle Grade 1 over 2m 87y

Selection – Appreciate It out of Jeremy and Sainte Baronne, 7 year old gelding, has had 7 career runs under rules, winning 5 times and finishing 2nd once and 3rd once. The wins have came at Leopardstown X 4 and Cork X 1. Was 3rd on Irish debut at Fairyhouse in the Willie Elliot Memorial over 2m on the 30th November 2019 when behind Assemble and Eskylane. Was then stepped up in trip to 2m 4f and 15y for next run at Leopardstown in the One For The Road INH Flat Race on the 27th December 2019. Appreciate It won beating Freedom to Dream by 6 lengths with Mahler Allstar a head behind in 3rd. Appreciate It would return to Leopardstown on the 1st February in another INH Flat Race over 2m, this race is a Group 2 and Appreciate It won again beating Risk Factor by 7 and 1/2 lengths with Lieutenant Command a further 7 and 1/2 lengths adrift in 3rd. The next race for Appreciate It would be an outing at Cheltenham on the 11th March 2020, in the Grade 1 Champion Bumper over 2m 87y. Appreciate It finished a 2 and 1/2 length 2nd to Ferny Hollow with Queens Brook a further 3 and 1/4 lengths behind in 3rd. Was then sent to Cork to make hurdle debut over 2m on heavy going and won beating Master Mcshee by 2 and 1/2 lengths with Suil Alainn a further 28 lengths adrift in 3rd. The next race for Appreciate It was on the 27th December 2020 when winning the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle over 2m on soft ground. Appreciate It won again beating Irascible by 9 lengths with Keskonrisk a further 3 and 1/2 length behind in 3rd. Latest race was on the 7th February this year at Leopardstown when winning the Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle, a Grade 1 over 2m on soft to heavy ground, Appreciate it beat Ballyadam by 3 and 1/4 lengths with Blue Lord 2 and 3/4 of a length behind in 3rd.

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Verdict – Appreciate It is my Nap of the Meeting, has the best form in this race and should win again here, especially having raced here before when finishing 2nd to Ferny Hollow back in 2020. Also faces Ballyadam and Blue Lord again and should confirm placings with those two rivals once more. WINNER

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3.05 – Champion Hurdle Grade 1 over 2m 87y

Selection – Epatante – Out of No Risk at All and Kadjara, 7 year old Mare, has raced 11 times winning 8 of those and finishing 2nd twice and 9th once. Epatante started off racing in France finishing 2nd at Saint Melo when beaten a neck by Extra Noire on the 23rd August 2017. Won at the 2nd time of asking when beating Envirante Passion by 6 lengths at Le Lion-D’Angers on the 13th September 2017. Saint Cloud was the next destination for Epatante’s 3rd race, in the Prix Jacques de Vienne a Grade 1 for 3yr old’s over 1m 4f and 110y, Epatante won beating Eveilduboulay by 3 lengths with El Martel a further 9 lengths adrift in 3rd. Was then sent to UK to be trained by Nicky Henderson and was the 12th November 2018 before she made UK debut at Kempton. Epatante won beating Ey Up Rocky by 3 and 1/2 lengths with Thibault a further 6 lengths adrift in 3rd. It would be almost 3 months until Epatante had her next race at Exeter on the 22nd February 2019. Epatante won again beating Makety by 3 and 1/2 lengths with Darling Du Large a further 7 lengths adrift in 3rd. Epatante had her first visit to Cheltenham on the 14th March 2019 when finishing 9th behind winner Eglantine Du Seuil. Epatante was rested until making reappearance at Newbury on the 30th November in a Class 1 Listed Handicap over 2m 69y. Epatante won beating French Crusader by 6 lengths with Elusive Belle a further 4 lengths behind in 3rd. The Christmas hurdle at Kempton was next race for Epatante and she won again beating Silver Streak by 5 lengths with Ballyandy a further 3 and 1/4 lengths behind in 3rd. Another visit to Cheltenham was next on the agenda for Epatante in the Grade 1 Champion Hurdle on the 10th March, Epatante won beating Sharjah by 3 lengths with Darver Star a further 3 and 3/4 lengths behind in 3rd. The Grade 1 Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle on the 28th November was next race for Epatante and she won again beating Sceau Royal by 4 and 1/4 lengths with Ribble Valley a further 7 lengths adrift in 3rd. Kempton on Boxing Day 2020 was Epatante’s latest race in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle and she finished a 6 and 1/2 length 2nd to Silver Streak with Ballyandy a further 8 and 1/2 lengths behind in 3rd.

Verdict – Epatante – has ran some decent races and has only tasted defeat twice on UK soil, Nicky Henderson is the best in the business at getting his horses in race order, coming straight to Cheltenham with no prep run says it all as he wouldn’t risk her running if she wasn’t ready. Epatante is my next best selection of the meeting and was very close to being my Nap as was torn between Appreciate It and Epatante. 3rd

Chris –

2.30 Ultima Handicap Chase

The Ultima has gone to a well fancied runner several times in recent renewals, having to go back to 2013 for the last winner priced at 12/1 or bigger. I’m expecting that to continue this year with Happygolucky, who has been laid out for the race since a smooth success here on the new course in December off 5lb lower. He’s possible one of the few in this race who could be well ahead of the handicapper and meets key trends on age, official ratings and course form, having also finished 4th in the Martin Pipe last term. He’s obviously not been missed in the betting, but his credentials are solid for the Kim Bailey yard. 2nd

3.05 Unibet Champion Hurdle

Honeysuckle was a game winner of the Mares’ Hurdle last season, with many hoping she had instead ran a race earlier in the Champion. They get their wish his season, after a pair of Grade 1 wins taking her record to unbeaten record to 10. The recent rain plays into her strengths having won on soft and heavy. A further plus is Honeysuckle meets key trends for age, winning last time out and previous winning course form. Epatante could possibly be her toughest test, but I’ll side with the Irish mare if they get in a battle up the hill. WINNER

Jamie –

3:40 – Mares Hurdle (G1) – Selection: Roksana

There is a familiar feel to the Mares Hurdle as Willie Mullins saddles the favourite in Concertista, who will take a bit of beating. Although I am going to side with the home team and back the very consistent Roksana to win this race for the second time. Dan Skelton’s Mare has been better than ever this season with two easy wins in graded hurdles against her own sex. In between those victories was a terrific effort when she was beaten only two lengths behind Paisley Park in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot. The step down to 2m 4f isn’t exactly perfect but the rain softened ground will help to bring out her stamina. She is a big player here. The Skelton brothers are in fantastic form coming into the Festival. 3rd

4:50 – National Hunt Novices Chase – Selection: Remastered

Always a race that demands a horse who has stamina in abundance and I think Remastered can stay the 3m 6f distance well on his first try at this trip. David Pipe’s big chaser has been progressing nicely over fences this season with a strong win in the Reynoldstown at Ascot last time out. Judging by the style of that success then the step up in trip could bring out further improvement. The quicker ground conditions today are a slight concern despite the recent rainfall the ground looks likely to dry out. Remastered is a good jumper and should he handle the quicker ground underfoot then I can’t have him out of the first three. At the prices he is a good each way selection. Unplaced

Rich –

1.20 Supreme Novice Hurdle – 4yo Plus – Grade 1 – 2m 87yds…
For Pleasure – Excelebration X Darsan 6yo gelding.
Winner of the Supreme Trial over C&D back in November by 3 &3/4 lengths from Third Time Lucki. That was his 4th win in 5 runs.
Has run once since, when finishing 14th of 23 at Newbury on February 21st in a Grade 3 handicap hurdle, i would draw a line through that run & has mainly run in smaller fields, so this race will suit with 8 declared. An EACH WAY chance at around 40/1 with 3 places on offer… 3rd

2.30 Ultima Handicap Chase – 5yo Plus – Grade 3 – 3m 1f….
Vintage Clouds – Cloudings X Rare Vintage 11yo gelding.
One of two 11 year olds in the declared field and finished 8th in this race last year, carrying 11s 4Lb behind The Conditional. He also finished 2nd in this race back in 2019, beaten by Beware The Bear. His mark has dropped to 143 & he carries 10s 11Lb, the last time he had this mark & weight was at Haydock in the Grade 2 Peter Marsh 3m 1f 125yd Chase in January 2020, when beating Definitely Red by 7 lengths.
Last seen at Kelso on February 19th in the Class 2 Edinburgh Gin Handicap chase over 2m 7f 96yds, finishing 3rd of 7 and was his first run after a wind operation. He also wears first time cheek pieces… Around 16/1 & certain bookie’s paying 7 places… WINNER

That is everything for you today folks…. Deep breath, imagine the Cheltenham ROAR & watch them fly up that hill….
Thanks for popping by & your support….. STAY SAFE….

All the Best – The Arseonlineracing Team

Cheltenham Festival 2021- Key trends and analysis.

‘If I could pick one meeting to have a winner at during the whole year, it would be the Cheltenham Festival; it is our Olympics’

With the best four days of the season just days away, I go through some of the big Grade 1’s and find key trends and stats that will hopefully help you narrow down the field and find a winner or two.

Tuesday:

1.20pm The Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

41 of the past 47 winners have been aged 5 or 6.

7yo’s are 0-9 over the past decade.This trend has been floated about a fair amount in recent times as a negative on Appreciate It, however it may not be as crucial as it seems. Not many 7yo’s take their chance, with the majority of the classier horses already in open company or sent chasing by that age. In fact, the past 4 have gone off at prices of 25/1,25/1,200/1 and 33/1. It’s clear the favourite is much better animal than the traditional 7yo in this contest and could be a trend buster.

9 of the past 10 winners all won last time out.

Several of the market leaders meet this trend, but it’s a negative for Ballyadam and Blue Lord.

The last 6 Betfair Hurdle winners have all been beaten.

Soaring Glory will have to buck recent history if he wants to land the Festival opener.

Since 2013, only 1 winner has gone in to the race with an official rating of less than 150.

At the current time of writing, Appreciate It is the only horse with a 150+ rating. It gives the impression this isn’t one of the better quality Supreme Novices’ that we will see, though next on the list Metier does have a rating of 149.

Just 1 winner this decade started off on the flat, the rest either started over hurdles in France, or in bumpers.

Metier ran 7 times on the flat, while this is also a minus for Blue Lord.

1.55 Sporting Life Arkle Challenge Trophy 

The past 10 winners were aged 6 or 7.

Of those on the first page of the betting, this would be a negative for 8yo’s Sky Pirate and Blackbow, while you have to go back to 2006 for the last 5yo winner, which Allmankind will hope to emulate.

Odds-on favourites have a great record, with 6 winning in the past decade.

At the current prices, Shishkin is currently flirting around or just under even money.

Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson have been responsible for 7 of the last 9 winners.

A clear positive for market leaders Shishkin and Energumene.

The race favours those who were previously high class over hurdles, with 6 of the last 9 boasting solid Graded form over timber.

A negative for Energumene, though he was only seen once over hurdles and won by 19 lengths. This trend is also a negative for Captain Guinness, Blackbow and Sky Pirate.

3.05pm Unibet Champion Hurdle

Only 2 horses aged 5 have won in the past 25 years whilst there has only been a single 9yo winner in recent history. It’s best to focus on the horses aged 6 to 8.

Most of the market leaders fit this trend, though it’s a negative for Goshen and Aspire Tower.

9 winners this decade had no more than 12 hurdle starts, it’s wise to concentrate on those who aren’t fully exposed.

Silver Streak comes out worst here, he will be starting in his 26th race over timber. Sharjah also has had 19 starts over hurdles.

8 last time out winners followed up here in the past decade.

A negative for last years winner, Epatante. Add Abacadabras, Aspire Tower and Sharjah to the list as well, who all failed to win their previous start.

Recent history favours those with previous winning course form.

A negative for many challengers, but a clear positive for Epatante and Honeysuckle at the head of the market. Cheltenham winners at bigger prices include Saint Roi and Song For Someone and Concertista, though the latter could go to the Mares Hurdle.

Wednesday:

1.20pm Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle

5 recent winners arrived here unbeaten over hurdles.

The only horse on the first page of the betting who ticks this box is Bear Ghylls.

The last 10 winners had all won a bumper.

Most of the principles meet this stat, though Bravemansgame failed to win in 2 starts on the level.

Challow Hurdle winners have a terrible record in Novice hurdles at the Festival, with no winners since 1990.

As impressive as he was, it’s another minus for Bravemansgame.

The last 10 winners had all won over at least 2m 4f.

A negative for Bear Ghylls, though he did win over the extended 2m 3f. 

It pays to focus on those near the head of the market, big priced winners are rare in this race.

Gaillard Du Mesnil, Bob Olinger and Bravemansgame are the only 3 at a single-figured price who are likely to run at the current time of writing.

1.55pm Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase. 

9 of the last 10 winners had contested at least 3 chase starts prior to arriving at Prestbury Park.

It will depend who turns up as all 3 could run elsewhere, but Eklat De Rire, Next Destination and Sporting John all fall short with only 2 chase starts each.

8 recent winners had previously run at the Festival before

A negative for Royale Pagaille if he doesn’t go for the Gold Cup. Also a minus for Eklat De Rire.

7yo’s have won 10 of the last 14 renewals.

A clear positive for market leader Monkfish, while also for the other 7yo’s Royal Pagaille and Eklat De Rire.

5 winners since 2010 have come from the previous years’ Albert Bartlett.

Monkfish and Latest Exhibition were 1st and 2nd there in 2020, separated by just a neck, though the former has had the latter’s measure on both occasions over fences this season.

3.05pm Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase

15 of the last 18 winners have been rated 164+ before the off.

All market leaders obviously meet this trend, though its a negative for outsiders Put The Kettle On, Notebook and Rouge Vif.

Only 1 winner the last decade had run less than twice that season.

Altior will have to repeat his success of 2018 as he again arrives here after 1 season start. Nube Negra has also only run once this term

All 10 winners this decade had at least 7 starts over fences previously.

Nube Negra has only run in 5 chases, while Cilaos Emery has 6 chase starts to date.

The past 10 winners had also ran and won over at least 2m 1f before.

Sadly Nube Negra again fails on this trend, though did win over the slightly extended 2m at Warwick.

7 recent winners had all been successful at Cheltenham before.

This is obviously the trend that market leader Chacun Pour Soi must defy. Nube Negra, First Flow, Cilaos Emery and Notebook have also all failed to win at the track. 

Thursday:

1.55pm Marsh Novices Chase

One of the newer Festival races with it’s debut in 2011, we still have a few trends to go by:

9 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7.

The principles meet this trend, however Chatham Street Lad will aim to become the first 9yo to win the race, though he isn’t fully exposed over fences having only hit the ground running this season.

8 of the past 10 winners were successful last time out.

A negative for Shan Blue and Chatham Street Lad.

8 winners came from the top 3 in the betting.

Safe to say Envoi Allen will be there, the other spots are likely to be filled by either Shan Blue, Chantry House or Chatham Street Lad.

6 winners this decade had won at Cheltenham before.

Envoi Allen, Chantry House, Chatham Street Lad, Fusil Raffles (if he runs) are all previous course winners.

2.30pm  Ryanair Chase

Previous course form is crucial, only 1 of the past 12 winners had not run at Cheltenham at least twice previously, with 7 of those previous course winners.

All principles meet the trend of Cheltenham experience, however Allaho and Melon have not yet won here, despite some very good efforts in defeat.

10 of the past 12 winners have gained at least 2 wins over the intermediate trips.

Melon Falls short here, as does Fakir D’oudaries and Saint Calvados should they run, though the latter was beaten a neck in this race last term.

5 of the last 7 winners took part in the previous years Marsh Novice Chase.

Samcro beat Melon in 2020, whilst Mister Fisher was back in 4th.

Grade 1 winning form is an advantage, with 9 recent winners successful at the top table.

Imperial Aura, Melon, Saint Calvados and Mister Fisher all have failed at Grade 1 level, though all have ran with credit over the past 2 season’s when tried.

3.05pm Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle

Every winner this decade was aged between 6 and 9.

The market leaders are fine here, only The Storyteller misses this trend should connections opt to line up.

8 recent winners of the Stayers also won last time out.

A plus for 2019 winner Paisley Park, as well as Roksana, Flooring Porter and Kemboy, though the latter’s was of course over fences.

8 of the last 12 winners had won at Cheltenham before.

Kemboy will need to buck this trend, as will Flooring Porter, who could be having his first start away from Ireland in his career.

10 of the past 12 winners had won a race that season.

Lisnagar Oscar will once again hope to deny this statistic, as he did when landing this race last season. Though like last term, he arrives at the Festival with a fair placed effort at Grade 2 level.

Friday:

1.20pm JCB Triumph Hurdle

The past 2 renewals have seen double-figure winners, but previously we had seen 7 of the past 10 winners come from the top 3 in the betting

The current top 3 in market are Tritonic, Zanahiyr and Quilixios.

Every winner the past decade ran during the previous 55 days.

This is a clear negative for Zanahiyr, Adagio and Duffle Coat.

8 of the last 12 winners had no more than 3 previous starts over hurdles.

Quilixios, Duffle Coat and Adagio come up over the trend here with 4 runs starts each, while outsiders Saint Sam and Nassalam are also more exposed should they line up.

2.30pm Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

10 of the past 12 winners had won over at least 2m 7f.

A negative for a pair at the top of the market, Stattler and Fakiera. As well as outsiders Adrimel and Atlantic Fairy should they start here.

6 winners in a row between 2014 and 2019 went off a double-figured price. The longest streak of all the Grade 1’s recently.

The prices will no doubt change, but its a concern if you fancy the shorter priced runners Stattler, Fakiera, Barbados Bucks or Torygraph.

Of the past 10 renewals, 8 winners finished in the top 3 of a Graded race last time out.

A positive for Stattler, Alaphilippe, Adrimel and Farouk D’alene. Not only did they finish top 3, but all won their respective Graded races.

9 of the previous 16 winners had run at Cheltenham previously.

With the Irish winning several recent renewals, this trend isn’t as prominent as it once was. But it’s a positive for the British runners Barbados Bucks and Adrimel.

3.05pm Wellchild Cheltenham Gold Cup

Focus on horses aged 7 to 9. No 10yo has won since Cool Dawn in 1998 with Long Run the only 6yo winner in 50 years.

Native River as an 11yo will hope to buck this fairly strong trend.

Every winner of the past 15 renewals had previously won a Grade 1 chase.

Royale Pagaille, Minella Indo and Santini are the principles who are yet to win at the top table, though the latter pair had won a Grade 1 over timber.

All 12 recent winners had run over fences at Cheltenham before.

Most meet this trend, however Royale Pagaille does not were connections to opt for this race.

9 of the last 12 winners were rated 166 or better over the larger obstacles.

Champ (165) and Minella Indo (164) fall short here, as do Allaho and Imperial Aura of those at slightly bigger prices, though that pair are likely heading to the Ryanair.

Only 1 winner since 2010 had not won a race over fences that season.

The Nicky Henderson pair, Champ and Santini, are negatives against this trend.

Stats & Words by Chris Price

Pictures – AOL File

March 2021

Across the Stakes… AOL Stateside

Welcome to Arseonlineracing… The 100% independent racing website with NO affiliate links….
Charlie & Rich are Stateside with their thoughts on the racing on the other side of the pond in the USA, as always there is plenty to get stuck into… Last weekend we started a new feature for our US racing blogs, where Charlie & Rich go head to head on 1 race from the plenty that are running, today is Gulfstream…

This blog covers Gulfstream stakes races, Aqueduct’s Grade 2 & 3 plus a wee bonus of Santa Anita Grade 1, so lets get them locked & loaded….

Charlie –

Gulfstream

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Race 10 – 9.46 – Karak -Out of Karakonite and Down The Well, has won 3 times from 5f to 6f was 3rd last time out at Churchill Downs in May last year, when beaten 6 lengths by Reagan’s Edge. Another one for the Wesley Ward and Irad Ortiz combination that can’t be overlooked, main threat to the selection comes in the shape of Miss Auramet who has won 8 times over 5f.

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Race 11 – 10.19 – Boston Post Road – Out of Quality Road and Lemon Bay, has only had one run so far for Chad Brown, and it was a winning one here over 6f last month, when beating Mischiefful by 3 lengths. With that run under the belt can go in again here at the expense of No Mo Spending who’s chasing a hat-trick after being off track since October last year.

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Head to Head – 9.14 (R9) Stakes – 3yo Only – Dirt – 6f….

Charlie – Roderick – Out of Into Mischief and Cayala, has won 2 times over 5f, including last time out when beating Country Final by 4 lengths at Churchill Downs in November last year, the step up in distance to 6f should suit and combination of Wesley Ward and Irad Ortiz shouldn’t be overlooked here.

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Rich –
Real Talk – Gemologist X Woodland Park 3yo colt.
Changed barns in December and ran for new trainer in a 6f Allowance race over C&D on January 7th, finishing 2nd to Willy Boi, who also runs in this race today. The colt improved on that run to win a 5f 110yds Allowance race at this course last time out, beating Gatsby, who has won since by 4 lengths.

Rich –

Aqueduct –
9.02 (R7) – Tom Fool Handicap – Grade 2 – 4yo Plus – 6f…..
Pete’s Play Cool – Munnings X Taft Lil Queen 8yo gelding.
Runner up in the Grade 3 Toboggan 7f Stakes at this course on January 30th finishing behind American Power, with Share the Ride in 3rd, who has since won the Grade 3 General George Stakes & the pair face off again today….

22.07 (R9) Gotham Stakes – Grade 3 – 3yo Only – 1m…
Highly Motivated – Into Mischief X Strong Incentive 3yo colt.
After finishing runner up on debut, the colt landed a 6f 110y Maiden Special Weight in September before landing the Nyquist Stakes at this course over 6f 110yds in November from Quick Tempo. Up in trip after 120 days off the track.

Santa Anita
1.00am(UK time) (R10) – Handicap – Grade 1 – Dirt – 1m 2f….
Maxfield – Street Sense X Velvety 4yo colt.
The Godolphin owned colt is unbeaten in 5 & is already a Grade 1 winner from 2019, when landin the Futurity Stakes over 1m 110yds at Keeneland in October of that year before landing the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill in May

That is everything for you today folks, thanks for popping by & for your continued support, we really appreciate it… Keep your eyes peeled for a NEW Interview, dropping at 7pm Sunday!
STAY SAFE.

All the Best – Charlie & Rich

Super Saturday – Meydan

Welcome to Arseonlineracing’s coverage of the Meydan racing carnival…
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The Super Saturday is always a fantastic card with a couple of Group 1 races & the rest are either Listed or Group 2/3 races, so a real high quality calibre card for us to get our teeth into…

Charlie – 12.00 Al Bastakiya Listed Stakes

This is the middle leg of the UAE Triple Crown ran on dirt over 1m 1f and 110y.

Selection – Panadol – Won here on debut on the 13th of February when handing Endifaa a 7 and 3/4 length defeat. Although is drawn wide today has the speed and stamina to get a good position and stamp his authority on this race, biggest threat to the selection comes in the shape of El Patriota who has 4 wins from last 5 runs.

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2.55 – Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3

Selection – Hypothetical – Has won twice in last 4 starts, latest victory came here on the 18th February when beating Bright Start by 3/4 of a length over 1m. Today’s race is over 1m 2f and the extra yardage shouldn’t be a problem for Hypothetical, biggest threat to the selection comes in the shape of Salute The Soldier who has won twice in last 5 starts.

Chris –

2.55 Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3

Thegreatcollection narrowly failed to reel in Salute the Soldier in Round 2 last month, and they face off again this afternoon. There is every reason to believe this slightly longer trip can reverse the form here, given the winner was all out at the line. Thegreatcollection has held his form extremely well over recent years, rarely running a bad race at Meydan; he looks ready for this 10f test and a first Grade 1 win in what doesn’t appear a strong renewal.

3.30 Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint

I tipped up Final song here a month ago as I felt she was in definite need of a step back to 6f. She ran well for a long way, finishing 2nd off a mark of 104 at decent odds. This will no doubt require more, but she meets Man Of Promise on much better terms here, while the 4lb fillies allowance gives her an edge on most of the field. It’s no surprise to see Frankie Dettori remain loyal and she should go well at the current each-way price.

Jamie –

1:10 – Mahab Al Shimal (G3) – Selection: Canvassed

A field of 13 go to post for this 6f Group 3 and it’s definitely one of the more open races on today’s card. I like the chances of recent C+D winner Canvassed to go in again. Doug Watson’s charge has improved on each of his four starts here in Dubai and last time out registered a smooth win over many of today’s opposition in a handicap. This is a step up in class but I don’t hold any fears about that to be honest. Canvassed is still quite unexposed and that could be the key here. He has been drawn in stall 12 which isn’t great but I think he has the class to overcome it. There is some time to get into a decent position before the top bend. If Canvassed has progressed further since his last race then he must be the one to beat here. Alkaraama is one who got nick a place at a big price.

2:55 – Al Maktoum Challenge (G1) – Selection: Thegreatcollection

The second of the Group 1 contests and this one has an open vibe to it with many  in with solid looking chances. Thegreatcollection has been hitting the proverbial crossbar lately with two close seconds at the Carnival lately. Last time out he found Salute The Soldier just too strong but I am confident that he can overturn that form as there was only a length in it. Just like round 2 of the Maktoum Challenge I don’t see there being much in this. Thegreatcollection is running very well right now and the step up another half furlong looks to be to his liking. He will give you a good run for your money. Of the rest, I like Secret Ambition as a big danger and Dubai Mirage for the home team could be worth an e/w punt.

Rich –

2.20 Jebel Hatta – Turf – Group 1 – 3yo Plus – 1m 1f….
AL Suhail – Dubawi X Shirocco Star 4yo colt.
Last seen in July 2020 at Newmarket in the 1m Sir Henry Cecil Listed Stakes, beating Happy Power by 6 lengths, having finished a 22 length 14 0f 15 in the 2000 Guineas behind Kameko in June. Top Rated 113.

3.30 Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint – Group 3 – 3yo Plus – 6f….
Royal Crusade – Shamardal X Zibelina 4yo colt.
Runner up in the 2019 6f Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster behind Threat. Beaten 6 & 1/4 lengths by Golden Horde in the 6f Group 1 Commonwealth Cup on season return in June 2020 before ending the season by winning the 6f Group 3 Prix De Ris-Orangis in Deauville back in July. Returns after 237 days & is rated 109.
The TOP RATED 110 is Acklam Express, who was runner up to Equillateral over 5f here on February 18th in the Group 2 Meydan Sprint Cup & now steps up in trip

That is everything for you folks, thanks for popping by & for your continued support, we really appreciate it….
STAY SAFE

All the Best – The Arseonlineracing Team

Saturday’s UK Racing Blog

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With everything that has gone on this week, the 4 of us at Arseonline have not said too much as we wanted to wait for the IHRB conclusion to the Investigation regarding Gordon Elliott & the Photo, which was circulating on social media last weekend. We. like everyone else found the photo abhorrent, we were shocked & saddened by the image. We have all spoken privately regarding this matter and after the IHRB conclusion today, we think the sanctions are about right & that the matter is now closed.
We wish that everyone can concentrate on racing & what promises to be a fantastic few weeks of National Hunt racing, starting today….

Now lets crack on with today’s racing…..

Charlie –

Newbury 1.50 Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap (Grade 3)

Selection – Killer Clown – Has been raised 15lb for a 7 and 1/2 length victory over Falco Blitz on boxing day at Kempton, that may not be enough to stop a repeat performance here although will have to dig a bit deeper, biggest threat to the selection comes in the shape of Grand Sancy who has two wins from last 5 starts for Paul Nicholls.

Jamie –

2:20 – Doncaster – Mares Novice Hurdle (Listed) – Selection: Wynne House

Alan King’s talented Mare is back against her own sex today after a very respectable fourth against the males in a Grade 2 last time out. The form hasn’t worked out that well from that Cheltenham heat but Wynne House is still the clear selection for this race and must rank on many people’s list as a strong fancy today. She is still relatively unexposed with this being just her seventh race under rules. A little break since her last race will have allowed her to grow and strengthen again and this trip and ground will suit Wynne House down to the ground. The King stable are in great form and she has a big chance.

2:40 – Kelso – Premier Chase (Listed) – Selection: Aso

A proper little 2m 7 ½f contest in store for us here. On today’s terms it may well be that Aso could be the one to step forward and take the mantle. Venetia Williams’ likeable 11yo was beaten by Two For Gold at Warwick last month but that horse has 9lbs extra to cope with today and at the prices I am in the mood go take him on. Especially as the margin between the two at Warwick was just a neck. It was a return to form for Aso and if he can put his best foot forward again he is in with a good chance. The only nagging doubt I have is the trip, Aso has not won a race beyond 2m 4f but I think with the decent ground today he can cope with it okay. Aso could be on the way back to his best and if he is anywhere near his best today he will take some beating.

Rich –

Lingfield – All Weather – Polytrack
1.25 – Handicap – Class 2 – 4yo Plus – 5f 6yds…
Blue Vega – Lope De Vega X Burning Heights 8yo gelding.
Made return last Saturday after a 135 day break in the 5f Hever Listed Stakes over C&D, finishing a 1 length 3rd to Lord Riddiford, with Ornate(4th) & Royal Birth(7th) both run again today. This is a relative drop in class & form in this class reads 1/3/1 & with the run just 7 days ago, you would expect Blue Vega to strip a wee bit fitter….
DANGER – Tone the Baratone, who was beaten 3/4’s of a length by Lord Riddiford 3 weeks ago in a Class 2 5f handicap at Wolverhampton.

2.00 Spring Cup Listed Stakes – 3yo Only – 7f 1yd…
Megallan – Kingman X Eastern Belle 3yo colt.
In the famous colours of Cracksman, we have a very nice Kingman colt. He was last seen 133 days ago finishing 7th of 8 in the Verterm Futuirty Group 1 at Doncaster on heavy ground & i would put a line through that run & look to his Group 3 Autumn Stakes run, where he finished 3rd over 1m at Newmarket on October 10th. One Ruler was the winner, since finished 2nd in the Doncaster Group 1 & 2nd that day was Van Gogh, who landed the Group 1 Prix Criterium at Saint-Cloud. He has 1 run on the all weather, on his 2nd start, winning over todays distance at Kempton

Thanks for popping by & for your continued support, we really appreciate it…. And our Rising Stars Interview with Tyler Heard is still available to read….
STAY SAFE.

All the Best – The Arseonlineracing Team.