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Hello and welcome to arseonlinetips Derby special. We have a jam rammed packed blog for you. Featuring the normal stuff from Charlie & Rich with added spice of Our Each Way selection to Saxon Warrior and a preview of the Epsom Downs Classic from Chris Price, so we best get on or the race will be over before we even get a word typed!!!

Yesterday we provided the first 3 home in the Oaks, with Charlie bagging the winner & Chris’ preview filling the rest of the top 3. Final Word had a 12/1 runner up and Cracksman/Ajman King both winning, so not a bad day for us really…. Anyway, enough of that here is Charlie …..

Charlie – what a day yesterday was blinding hot and busy with work, but that didn’t stop me from lapping up the victory of Forever Together in the Oaks, simply stunning way to land the prize blasting the field in the closing stages to win by 4 and 1/2 lengths was breathtaking to see and proves beyond doubt that you can’t ignore a Galileo offspring in a group race. Unfortunately my other two selections both lost but to get the 7-1 winner of the Oaks is enough for one day. Enough about yesterday today it’s all about the Derby and we do have a treat in store for you once again so without further adieu let’s crack on with my selections for today listed below.

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Ship Of The Fen -Has won 2 times and placed 2nd once from last 5 starts, both wins have came over 1m 1f and 1m 2f at Nottingham and Doncaster retrospectively. Latest run and victory at Doncaster sees him raised another 6 lbs but with conditions to suit another bold display looks likely in this deeper race, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he was delivered late to stamp his authority in the closing stages.

Win Advised

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Across The Stars -Is another one I like but doesn’t set the world on fire form wise. Although has placed 2nd twice this year over 1m 4f at Doncaster and more recently at York last weekend when losing by a neck, has only been raised 3lb for that narrow margin defeat and would be no surprise if in the mix again here.

Win Advised

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Edge -Won twice last year on turf over 1m 2f and 7f, although hasn’t been in that form this season as yet finishing 3rd at Salisbury and finishing 5th at Bath over 1m 2f but only losing by around 7 length on both runs. Is only 1lb higher than last win mark and returning to polytrack is a positive but will need to break better here than he did at Bath if he wants to be involved here.

Win Advised

.Well that’s my thoughts on today’s selections, good luck if following and please remember to keep stakes small so it doesn’t hurt your pocket. I will now hand you over to Rich for our Eachway selections in the Derby and Chris’s Derby preview and Rich’s Final Word.

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Derby Each Way Thoughts – (4.10 Epsom Downs)

 Rich – Knight to Behold – The Sea the Stars Colt out of Dam Angel of Gwaun(Ire), who’s sire is Sadler’s Wells. A debut runner up by a nose last year in a Class 2 Novice Stakes at Newbury in a 1m contest before landing the odds on his 2nd start over 1m in a Newmarket Class 4 Novice Stakes, winning by a neck.

Trainer Harry Dunlop, put him away for the winter and he returned to the track 199 days later. Having to step up from 1m to 1m 4f in the LIngfield Derby Trial. Under an enterprising ride from regular jockey Richard Kingscote, he had the rest of the field off the bridle with 3 furlongs to go and soon put the race to bed, winning by 3 & 1/4 lengths from Aidan O’Brien’s Kew Gardens and 10 lengths ahead of John Gosden’s Corelli. The Lingfield Derby trial has yielded 8 winners of the Epsom classic, but the last time was 20 years ago in 1998!

Charlie – Masar -Trained by Charlie Appleby and ridden by William Buick, this colt out of New Approach and Kawalah won at Newmarket in the Class 1 Group 3 Craven in April beating White Mocha by 9 lengths, was a tad disappointing in the 2000 Guinea’s in May finishing 3rd after Tracking Saxon Warrior and having difficulty keeping up when pace quickened and only losing by 2 lengths. That was a decent race and if taking to the extra distance of the Derby can get involved and sneak a place in later stages at a nice price of 18-1 at time of writing.

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Chris Price’s Epsom Derby Preview – 

The unbeaten Deep Impact colt Saxon Warrior had rave reviews from trainer Aidan O’Brien this spring, saying he had never seen a horse strengthen from two to three. His trainers optimism was proved correct when dispatching a his rivals in the 2000 guineas, running on strongly to the line. It was clear the Derby was always the plan, so to win first time out over a trip that would be his absolute minimum, only enhances his credentials. A winner on soft ground last year at Naas, he could well run the finish out of his rivals come the big race.

Roaring Lion was no match for Saxon Warrior at Newmarket, but to finish fifth was still far from a disgrace. He turned the Dante into a procession a fortnight ago which set himself up for another crack at the favourite. There are obvious questions marks regarding stamina from a breeding perspective, with the majority of his close relations running just under or over a mile, softer conditions also appear not to aid his cause, having won on good to soft, I find it hard to believe a slog over twelve furlongs is what he requires. Connections will be praying for no more rain over the next couple of days.

The Chester Vase is recognised as an ideal Derby trial, this years winner was Young Rascal, trained by William Haggis. A winner of his novice race at Newbury in April, this son of Intello has relished the greater test of stamina. He showed tremendous battling qualities to win at Chester, that sort of attitude is not lost in a race like this. Soft ground may not be ideal, but he was runner-up on a testing surface on debut last year, so it may not inconvenience him more than others.

The mount of Frankie Dettori is Hazapour, another who has greatly improved this term, winning a key trial in the Derrinstown at Leopardstown. Being related to several top middle distance performers on the dams side, including a winner of this race Harzand, this step up in trip looks likely to suit. Versatile in any conditions can only be a positive with such an unsettled forecast and this Shamardal colt has solid claims at a fair price.

Delano Roosevelt was just touched off by Hazapour at Leopardstown, he ran on well that day and its no surprise he ends up here. This should be an ideal trip for this son of Galileo, he doesn’t have a great deal to find with some of those shorter in the betting, however it would be a shock were he to find ahead of stablemate Saxon Warrior, having already been behind that one at Naas last Autumn.

Of the other Ballydoyle runners, Kew Gardens appears to hold the better chance, ahead of Delano Roosevelt at Group 3 level over a mile last season, he also comfortably accounted for Dee Ex Bee in the Zetland on his final juvenile start. He was slightly disappointing at Lingfield in the Derby Trial, but could bounce back. The Pentagon would hold solid each-way claims on a fast surface, but his form with give under foot leaves him with plenty to find. Zabriskie was a well beaten third behind Roaring Lion at York, its hard to imagine him turning the tables here, but he at least appears to cope with soft ground. He will need to show more than his sixth in the Blue Riband Trial here a month ago.

Should conditions not improve it could be that John Gosdens best chance would be with Sevenna Star, left in the race just in case of inclement weather, connections hope’s have been rewarded with potentially soft ground come Saturday. A wide margin winner on reappearance at Windsor this spring, he won the Classic trial at Sandown on deteriorating ground, staying on well up the hill. The bare form at those wins needs to be improved on, but he’s a colt that will relish give underfoot.

Knight To Behold was gifted an easy lead at Lingfield last time out, but made no mistake to record a comfortable success over Kew Gardens. Doing the same here will be an entirely different challenge, however he wasn’t stopping at the line and could be a danger if allowed to slip the field.

We complete the line-up with two of the more experienced runners in the field, Masar was third in the 2000 Guineas a month ago and probably would have been second having paid for chasing Saxon Warrior when the pace quickened. This son of Derby winner New Approach is almost sure to improve for this greater test of stamina. The obvious negative is the ground, with all his best form on a sounder surface. He would need every possible minute of sunshine between now and 4.30pm on Saturday. De Ex Bee is another tough and typical Mark Johnston runner. He brings course form to the table having won a minor conditions event here on heavy ground last Autumn, but was run out of it by Young Rascal at Chester.

Summary: Hardly an original choice, but preference is for Saxon Warrior. Stall one is far from ideal, but it shouldn’t be too big an inconvenience given this smaller field. He is bred to stay the trip and couldn’t have done more on reappearance in the Guineas. If a short price isn’t your thing then Young Rascal and Hazapour are two to focus on at bigger prices and can fill the places with conditions to suit, while Masar wouldn’t be out of it should conditions improve.

Rich’s Final Word –

Just like Oaks day, I will start with the opening contest at Epsom and Court House(2.00) drops back into a handicap race after finishing a 1/2 length runner up in a 3 runner contest at Newmarket, albeit a Listed race. Runner up to Gronkowski in March. Only one outside top 2 and that was on debut….

The Fillies’ Princess Elizabeth Group 3, 1m 113y at 2.35 and I like another, who has not finished outside the top 2 in the last 5 runs. Shenanigans.… Runner up last two runs, both in Listed company and last time out by 3/4’s of a length to Nyaleti, who has since won the German 1,000 Guineas

You have my Derby each way and now I head to Doncaster(their is other racing apart from at Epsom!)

The second race(1.55) has a nice filly taking on the colts in a Class 4 Novice Stakes for 2YO’s over 6f 111y and her name is….. New Winds, she was a debut winner on May 19th in a class 4 fillies’ Novice Stakes at Newmarket by 2 lengths and runs under a penalty…

Another to note, is from our recent Exclusive Interview with Charlie Fellowes, his highly though of Jeremiah(Also one that Oli Bell likes) runs in the 3.40. 

Here is today’s tracker – 

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That is your lot today folks…. A jam packed blog! We would like to thank you all for visiting our site in May, over 2,200 of you make the trek to read our articles, blogs and Interviews. There is so much more to come in June, with another Edition or two of the Paper Files!

All the Best – Charlie, Rich & Chris 

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