Welcome to arseonlinetips, a 100% Independent racing blog brought to you from either end of the British Isles… From Glasgow to the Isle of Wight!
Yesterday was a bit like after the Lord’s Mayors show, with Charlie’s Full House on Thursday, we were left with a day of what could have been, but we are not deterred and regular reader’s, will know, that we always go again and Saturday is no different.
Charlie landed the Epsom Oaks and Derby winners earlier this month and today is Irish Derby day… You never know! So as usual, he brings you his Saturday Selection’s and Rich has Final Word, so let’s get down to business…
Charlie – Well Friday certainly wasn’t what I had planned, my first selection Desert Dream finished a disappointing 6th. My 2nd selection Our Little Pony lost by a neck after looking like the winner, before being hampered in closing stages a more experienced jock would have won. My final selection Magnolia Springs Finished a disapointing 7th making it a complete wipe out profit wise. Saturday is another day and selections for today are listed below.
.Tabarrak – Has won twice and placed twice from last 5 starts and sets a decent standard here. Although was 3rd last time out at Haydock behind Dbai and Larchmont lad, that was a tough race although Tabarrak was only a neck behind Larchmont Lad in that race and could easily overturn that here with a similar run.
.On Fire – Won at Ripon two starts back over 2m in a Class 5 handicap, was upped in grade for recent Class 3 handicap at Musselburgh and finished 5th. Trainer has 25% strike rate in last 14 days whilst jock has a 27% success rate at Chester. This points to a big run from On Fire and let’s hope he scorches his way into the winners enclosure.
.Jan Van Eyck – Won here last time out from out of the handicap, raced off 77 then but now races off 76 and if repeating that run from 3 weeks ago will be hard to beat. Same jock onboard today and another bold display can’t be discounted here and gets my vote as the likeliest winner.
Well that’s my thoughts on today’s selections, good luck if following and please remember to keep stakes small so it doesn’t hurt your pocket. I will now pass you over to Rich for The Final Word.
Rich’s Final Word –
I have a fair bit to go through today, so please bear with me… Wiff Waff, was let’s say very disappointing and Insurgence, is going to be a All Weather horse and will go into the AW tracker…
Now as I mentioned, it is very busy, which is standard for a Saturday and we don’t really understand why all these meetings could not be spread out a bit more over the weeks.
Enough of the moaning, let’s get on with what I have in store for you! One from Newcastle(AW) and one from Newmarket, with the rest from the Curragh!
The one I like at Newcastle(AW) is on ITV Racing and it’s Yafta(12.55) in the Chipchase Stakes(Group 3) 6f. Yafta has only finished unplaced once and that was on debut. Since returning for the season form figures read 2/1/2. Beaten by a head last time out on June 9th in a 7f C2 Handicap at Newmarket. Has won at Chelmsford on only AW start
While over at Newmarket, in the 2.55 Fred Archer Stakes, Class 1 Listed over 1m 4f. Second Step, likely to be a warm favourite, finished runner up on seasonal return to the sensational Crystal Ocean by 6 lengths and was also runner up on final start last term to Desert Encounter in a Newbury Group 3 although I think Crimson Rosette for Charlie Fellowes will give Second Step something to think about after out running her 14/1 odds in the Pinnicle Stakes(G3) at Haydock after stepping up from Class 3 company, I think these two will be a lot closer at the finish….
Right it’s off to the Curragh for Irish Derby day( we will get to that in due course) but we will start with the Maiden at 1.40, for 2yo Only over 6f and Aidan O’Brien unleashes yet another Scat Daddy Colt – Mount Tabora, who is half brother to J Wonder and Chachamaidee and cost $750,000 as a foal!
Fleet Review(Yes another AOB runner) is 2/3 over C/D and run’s in the 2.50 Dash Listed Stakes over 6f. Although a disappointing 15th of 22 at Royal Ascot he had previously finished a 1 & 1/4 length runner up to stable companion Sioux Nation in a 6f Group 3 at Naas(with Tongue Tie) Having run at Ascot with no Tongue Tie it is refitted today and Ryan Moore prefers Fleet Review over stable companion Full Moon.
The Railway Stakes(4.35) Group 2 for 2yo Only over 6f features one I have tracked since debut and yes, it is another Aidan O’Brien Scat Daddy Colt! Van Beethoven… Since winning at Naas has finished runner up over C/D to Fairyland and was 4th at Royal Ascot last week and Ryan Moore is on board but saying this there is one, at a decent Each Way price that could hit the frame – Invincible Karma for Jessica Harrington. 3rd on debut and improved to finish runner up by 1/2 a length over C/D in a maiden and that race has had 2 winners from it, so you never know!
The Irish Derby – Group 1 Class 1 – 3yo Only – 1m 4f
This race see’s Epsom Derby favourite Saxon Warrior renew battle with Derby runner up Dee Ex Bee. The hot favourite finished 4th at Epsom, some 3 lengths behind the runner up and both are entitled to come on for that race too, with Saxon seemingly still a touch green and Dee Ex Bee certainly out running the form(Like Masar did too, if we are honest) so with Saxon likely to be odds on for this, where do we go without the Favourite? As mentioned Dee Ex Bee, has been runner up in last two starts and has not won since landing a Class 2 contest. Another Epsom Derby runner, who has headed over the Irish sea is Knight to Behold, who went off really keen at Epsom after landing the Lingfield Derby Trail(Frankie Detorri on board today) and is likely to finished a lot closer than that day at Epsom. I have mentioned Rostropovich, a few times in this section and fresh from his runner up spot last week at Ascot, can give another good account for Aidan O’Brien. Another who ran at Ascot last week is from the Epsom Derby winning team of Charlie Appleby & William Buick, Old Persian, who won at Ascot to take his wins this term to 3 from the last 4 runs and if this doesn’t come to soon for both Old Persian & Rostropovich, they two could be in the mix. It is in intriguing race and one to enjoy. If I was pushed to pick two, I think I will stick with Knight to Behold, to out run his odds and Dee Ex Bee to finally get back in the Winner’s Enclosure!
Today’s Tracker –
As we said at the start, a lot to go through and to be honest, we have only scratched the surface of the racing today… But if you have read this far, Corinthian Knight runs at Woodbine tonight and we will certainly be cheering on for Archie Watson and the On To a Winner team(All the Best)….
No cookie’s this week as Charlie has been eating Steak after his full house, while Rich is on Pizza(Hahaha)
Please only bet what you can afford to lose, if not then watch the racing on TV and it should be a corking day.
Also the Interviews are returning on Sunday evening… Yes this is an EXCLUSIVE!
All the Best – Charlie & Rich